Models
GUFIC BIOSCIENCES LTD.GUFICBIOPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹43per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹43implied FY26 P/E 5.9× · EV/EBITDA 5.0×
Against CMP ₹426.00−89.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹26₹77
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹268₹468
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 179 |
| PV of terminal value | 576 |
| Enterprise value | 755 |
| less net debt | (323) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 432 |
| ÷ 10.03 crore shares | ₹43 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 46 | 51 | 58 | 67 | 77 |
| 10.50% | 40 | 44 | 50 | 57 | 65 |
| 11.00% | 34 | 38 | 43 | 49 | 55 |
| 11.50% | 30 | 33 | 37 | 42 | 47 |
| 12.00% | 26 | 29 | 32 | 36 | 41 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹426.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1 · 42 · 78 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.22 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 807 | 820 | 944 | 1,086 | 1,248 | 1,436 | 1,651 | 1,899 |
| growth % | — | 1.6 | 15.2 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| EBITDA | 146 | 135 | 151 | 174 | 200 | 230 | 264 | 304 |
| margin % | 18.1 | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| less depreciation | (17) | (21) | (31) | (36) | (41) | (47) | (54) | (63) |
| EBIT | 129 | 114 | 121 | 138 | 159 | 182 | 210 | 241 |
| less tax on EBIT | (31) | (36) | (41) | (47) | (54) | (62) | ||
| NOPAT | 89 | 102 | 118 | 135 | 156 | 179 | ||
| add depreciation | 17 | 21 | 31 | 36 | 41 | 47 | 54 | 63 |
| less capex | (113) | (76) | (31) | (36) | (43) | (52) | (63) | (75) |
| less working-capital build | — | (63) | (73) | (84) | (96) | (111) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (120) | 47 | — | 39 | 43 | 47 | 51 | 55 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 37 | 36 | 36 | 35 | 35 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 385, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 121 | 138 | 159 | 182 | 210 | 241 |
| Interest at 10.5% on debt | (40) | (40) | (40) | (40) | (40) | |
| Profit before tax | 97 | 118 | 142 | 169 | 201 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 72 | 88 | 105 | 126 | 149 |
| Dividends | (1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 62 | 71 | 84 | 100 | 121 | 147 |
| Working capital | 423 | 486 | 559 | 643 | 740 | 851 |
| Net block and other assets | 857 | 857 | 859 | 864 | 872 | 885 |
| Debt | 385 | 385 | 385 | 385 | 385 | 385 |
| Equity | 665 | 737 | 825 | 930 | 1,056 | 1,205 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 45 | 56 | 69 | 84 | 101 | |
| Investing (capex) | (36) | (43) | (52) | (63) | (75) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 9 | 13 | 17 | 21 | 25 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 9 | 13 | 17 | 21 | 25 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15% | 16% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹43 | (89.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.