Models
GUJ IND POW CO. LTDGIPCLPower
₹238per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹238implied FY19 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 8.5×
Against CMP ₹200.45+18.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies1.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2465%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹194₹324
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹120₹212
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY20–FY24 free cash flow | 1,225 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,261 |
| Enterprise value | 3,486 |
| less net debt | 202 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,688 |
| ÷ 15.52 crore shares | ₹238 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 244 | 259 | 276 | 298 | 324 |
| 10.50% | 229 | 241 | 255 | 272 | 293 |
| 11.00% | 216 | 226 | 238 | 252 | 268 |
| 11.50% | 204 | 213 | 223 | 234 | 248 |
| 12.00% | 194 | 201 | 210 | 220 | 231 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹200.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 188 · 235 · 291 |
| Draws below the CMP | 17% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.21 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,407 | 1,520 | 1,642 | 1,773 | 1,915 | 2,068 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 409 | 441 | 476 | 514 | 555 | 600 |
| margin % | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 |
| less depreciation | (168) | (182) | (197) | (213) | (230) | (248) |
| EBIT | 240 | 258 | 279 | 301 | 325 | 352 |
| less tax on EBIT | (41) | (44) | (47) | (51) | (55) | (59) |
| NOPAT | 200 | 215 | 232 | 250 | 270 | 292 |
| add depreciation | 168 | 182 | 197 | 213 | 230 | 248 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | (59) | (128) | (207) | (298) |
| less working-capital build | — | (18) | (20) | (21) | (23) | (25) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 379 | 350 | 314 | 270 | 218 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 360 | 299 | 242 | 188 | 136 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 59, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 240 | 258 | 279 | 301 | 325 | 352 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 254 | 274 | 297 | 321 | 347 | |
| Profit after tax | 255 | 211 | 228 | 247 | 267 | 288 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 261 | 636 | 982 | 1,292 | 1,559 | 1,772 |
| Working capital | 228 | 247 | 266 | 287 | 310 | 335 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,343 | 3,160 | 3,022 | 2,937 | 2,914 | 2,964 |
| Debt | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 |
| Equity | 2,571 | 2,782 | 3,010 | 3,256 | 3,523 | 3,811 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 375 | 405 | 438 | 473 | 512 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (59) | (128) | (207) | (298) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 375 | 346 | 310 | 267 | 214 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 375 | 346 | 310 | 267 | 214 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY19 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 29% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹238 | 18.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.