Models
GUJ NAR VAL FER & CHEM LGNFCChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹332per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹332implied FY26 P/E 4.7× · EV/EBITDA 5.5×
Against CMP ₹562.80−41.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹257₹482
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹365₹619
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,072 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,736 |
| Enterprise value | 4,808 |
| less net debt | 74 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,882 |
| ÷ 14.70 crore shares | ₹332 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 343 | 368 | 399 | 436 | 482 |
| 10.50% | 316 | 338 | 362 | 392 | 429 |
| 11.00% | 294 | 311 | 332 | 357 | 386 |
| 11.50% | 274 | 289 | 307 | 327 | 351 |
| 12.00% | 257 | 270 | 285 | 302 | 322 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹562.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 265 · 333 · 410 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10,227 | 7,930 | 7,892 | 7,773 | 7,656 | 7,542 | 7,428 | 7,317 | 7,207 |
| growth % | 18.3 | (22.5) | (0.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) |
| EBITDA | 1,879 | 503 | 615 | 879 | 865 | 852 | 839 | 827 | 814 |
| margin % | 18.4 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 |
| less depreciation | (303) | (308) | (303) | (307) | (299) | (294) | (290) | (285) | (281) |
| EBIT | 1,576 | 195 | 312 | 572 | 567 | 558 | 550 | 541 | 533 |
| less tax on EBIT | (144) | (143) | (141) | (139) | (136) | (134) | |||
| NOPAT | 428 | 424 | 417 | 411 | 405 | 399 | |||
| add depreciation | 303 | 308 | 303 | 307 | 299 | 294 | 290 | 285 | 281 |
| less capex | (173) | (251) | (453) | (546) | (536) | (484) | (434) | (385) | (337) |
| less working-capital build | — | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,200 | (219) | 153 | — | 205 | 245 | 285 | 323 | 360 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 194 | 210 | 219 | 224 | 225 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 572 | 567 | 558 | 550 | 541 | 533 |
| Interest at 12.1% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 567 | 558 | 550 | 541 | 533 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 424 | 417 | 411 | 405 | 399 |
| Dividends | (260) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 74 | 279 | 524 | 808 | 1,131 | 1,491 |
| Working capital | 1,205 | 1,187 | 1,169 | 1,152 | 1,135 | 1,118 |
| Net block and other assets | 10,080 | 10,317 | 10,507 | 10,651 | 10,751 | 10,807 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 9,115 | 9,539 | 9,956 | 10,367 | 10,772 | 11,171 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 740 | 729 | 718 | 708 | 697 | |
| Investing (capex) | (536) | (484) | (434) | (385) | (337) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 205 | 245 | 285 | 323 | 360 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 205 | 245 | 285 | 323 | 360 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1.5% | 11.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹332 | (41.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.