Models
GUJARAT CONTAINERS LTD.BSE 513507Industrial Products
₹197per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹197implied FY26 P/E 15.1× · EV/EBITDA 8.9×
Against CMP ₹175.05+12.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹156₹280
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹143₹181
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 36 |
| PV of terminal value | 79 |
| Enterprise value | 114 |
| less net debt | (3) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 111 |
| ÷ 0.57 crore shares | ₹197 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 203 | 217 | 234 | 254 | 280 |
| 10.50% | 189 | 200 | 214 | 230 | 250 |
| 11.00% | 176 | 186 | 197 | 210 | 227 |
| 11.50% | 165 | 173 | 183 | 194 | 207 |
| 12.00% | 156 | 163 | 171 | 180 | 191 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹175.05; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 169 · 197 · 231 |
| Draws below the CMP | 16% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.75 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 136 | 141 | 152 | 146 | 140 | 135 | 129 | 124 | 119 |
| growth % | (9.5) | 4.3 | 7.4 | (3.9) | (4.0) | (4.0) | (4.0) | (4.0) | (4.0) |
| EBITDA | 18 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| margin % | 13.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| EBIT | 17 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (3) | (3) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| NOPAT | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| less capex | (12) | (6) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) |
| less working-capital build | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 15 | 6 | (2) | — | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4, dividends at 11.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Interest at 8.7% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |
| Profit after tax | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 10 | 19 | 27 | 34 | 41 |
| Working capital | 36 | 35 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 29 |
| Net block and other assets | 33 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Debt | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Equity | 58 | 64 | 71 | 77 | 83 | 88 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -4% | 8.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹197 | 12.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.