Models
GUJARAT ENERGY LIMITEDGUJENERGYGas
₹424per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹424implied FY26 P/E 18.9× · EV/EBITDA 14.4×
Against CMP ₹241.20+75.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies12.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹317₹636
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹246₹452
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 8,076 |
| PV of terminal value | 33,753 |
| Enterprise value | 41,829 |
| less net debt | (2,082) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 39,747 |
| ÷ 93.82 crore shares | ₹424 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 439 | 475 | 518 | 570 | 636 |
| 10.50% | 401 | 431 | 466 | 509 | 560 |
| 11.00% | 369 | 394 | 424 | 458 | 500 |
| 11.50% | 342 | 363 | 388 | 416 | 450 |
| 12.00% | 317 | 336 | 357 | 381 | 409 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹241.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 296 · 416 · 583 |
| Draws below the CMP | 2% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 17,306 | 16,293 | 17,185 | 24,425 | 31,752 | 41,278 | 53,661 | 69,759 | 90,687 |
| growth % | 3.1 | (5.9) | 5.5 | 42.1 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 2,392 | 1,932 | 1,880 | 2,902 | 3,779 | 4,912 | 6,386 | 8,301 | 10,792 |
| margin % | 13.8 | 11.9 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 |
| less depreciation | (428) | (474) | (511) | (899) | (1,175) | (1,527) | (1,985) | (2,581) | (3,355) |
| EBIT | 1,964 | 1,458 | 1,369 | 2,003 | 2,604 | 3,385 | 4,400 | 5,720 | 7,436 |
| less tax on EBIT | (665) | (864) | (1,124) | (1,461) | (1,899) | (2,469) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,338 | 1,739 | 2,261 | 2,939 | 3,821 | 4,967 | |||
| add depreciation | 428 | 474 | 511 | 899 | 1,175 | 1,527 | 1,985 | 2,581 | 3,355 |
| less capex | (1,087) | (837) | (752) | (953) | (1,238) | (1,666) | (2,238) | (3,003) | (4,027) |
| less working-capital build | — | (366) | (476) | (619) | (805) | (1,046) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,289 | 797 | 1,054 | — | 1,309 | 1,646 | 2,068 | 2,594 | 3,250 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,243 | 1,408 | 1,593 | 1,800 | 2,032 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 3,060, dividends at 9.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,003 | 2,604 | 3,385 | 4,400 | 5,720 | 7,436 |
| Interest at 8.2% on debt | (251) | (251) | (251) | (251) | (251) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,353 | 3,134 | 4,149 | 5,469 | 7,185 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,019 | 1,572 | 2,093 | 2,772 | 3,654 | 4,800 |
| Dividends | (184) | (143) | (191) | (252) | (332) | (437) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 978 | 1,977 | 3,265 | 4,914 | 7,008 | 9,653 |
| Working capital | 1,218 | 1,584 | 2,061 | 2,680 | 3,485 | 4,531 |
| Net block and other assets | 25,350 | 25,413 | 25,551 | 25,804 | 26,226 | 26,897 |
| Debt | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 |
| Equity | 18,858 | 20,287 | 22,190 | 24,709 | 28,030 | 32,393 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,380 | 3,144 | 4,138 | 5,430 | 7,109 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,238) | (1,666) | (2,238) | (3,003) | (4,027) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (143) | (191) | (252) | (332) | (437) | |
| Net change in cash | 999 | 1,288 | 1,648 | 2,094 | 2,646 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,142 | 1,479 | 1,900 | 2,427 | 3,082 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 11.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹424 | 75.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.