Models
GUJARAT MINERAL DEV CORPGMDCLTDMinerals & Mining
₹161per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹161implied FY26 P/E 5.3× · EV/EBITDA 5.5×
Against CMP ₹576.90−72.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies21.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3194%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹115₹253
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹466₹772
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 346 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,984 |
| Enterprise value | 5,330 |
| less net debt | (214) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,116 |
| ÷ 31.80 crore shares | ₹161 |
94% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 167 | 183 | 202 | 224 | 253 |
| 10.50% | 151 | 164 | 179 | 198 | 220 |
| 11.00% | 137 | 148 | 161 | 176 | 194 |
| 11.50% | 125 | 135 | 145 | 158 | 173 |
| 12.00% | 115 | 123 | 132 | 143 | 155 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹576.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 128 · 161 · 201 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,501 | 2,463 | 2,851 | 2,653 | 2,521 | 2,395 | 2,275 | 2,161 | 2,053 |
| growth % | 28.2 | (29.7) | 15.8 | (6.9) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 1,348 | 626 | 639 | 966 | 918 | 872 | 828 | 787 | 747 |
| margin % | 38.5 | 25.4 | 22.4 | 36.4 | 36.4 | 36.4 | 36.4 | 36.4 | 36.4 |
| less depreciation | (81) | (79) | (95) | (115) | (108) | (103) | (98) | (93) | (88) |
| EBIT | 1,267 | 547 | 543 | 852 | 809 | 769 | 730 | 694 | 659 |
| less tax on EBIT | (209) | (198) | (188) | (179) | (170) | (161) | |||
| NOPAT | 643 | 611 | 580 | 551 | 524 | 498 | |||
| add depreciation | 81 | 79 | 95 | 115 | 108 | 103 | 98 | 93 | 88 |
| less capex | (24) | (477) | (644) | (1,034) | (983) | (731) | (502) | (294) | (106) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 908 | (368) | 415 | — | (264) | (48) | 147 | 322 | 480 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (250) | (41) | 113 | 224 | 300 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 309, dividends at 33.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 852 | 809 | 769 | 730 | 694 | 659 |
| Interest at 3.3% on debt | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Profit before tax | 799 | 759 | 720 | 684 | 649 | |
| Profit after tax | 957 | 603 | 573 | 544 | 516 | 490 |
| Dividends | (321) | (203) | (192) | (183) | (173) | (165) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 94 | (380) | (628) | (671) | (530) | (223) |
| Working capital | (91) | (91) | (91) | (91) | (91) | (91) |
| Net block and other assets | 8,980 | 9,854 | 10,483 | 10,887 | 11,088 | 11,106 |
| Debt | 309 | 309 | 309 | 309 | 309 | 309 |
| Equity | 7,073 | 7,473 | 7,854 | 8,215 | 8,557 | 8,882 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 712 | 676 | 641 | 609 | 578 | |
| Investing (capex) | (983) | (731) | (502) | (294) | (106) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (203) | (192) | (183) | (173) | (165) | |
| Net change in cash | (474) | (248) | (43) | 141 | 308 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (271) | (56) | 139 | 315 | 472 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 36.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹161 | (72.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.