Models
GUJARAT PIPAVAV PORT LTDGPPLTransport Infrastructure
₹248per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹248implied FY26 P/E 21.4× · EV/EBITDA 16.4×
Against CMP ₹160.93+53.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies7.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹188₹367
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹142₹200
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,215 |
| PV of terminal value | 9,747 |
| Enterprise value | 11,962 |
| less net debt | 9 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 11,971 |
| ÷ 48.34 crore shares | ₹248 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 256 | 276 | 300 | 330 | 367 |
| 10.50% | 235 | 252 | 272 | 295 | 324 |
| 11.00% | 217 | 231 | 248 | 267 | 290 |
| 11.50% | 202 | 214 | 227 | 244 | 263 |
| 12.00% | 188 | 198 | 210 | 224 | 239 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹160.93; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 192 · 246 · 315 |
| Draws below the CMP | 1% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.49 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 917 | 988 | 988 | 1,158 | 1,361 | 1,599 | 1,879 | 2,208 | 2,594 |
| growth % | 23.3 | 7.8 | (0.1) | 17.3 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 |
| EBITDA | 465 | 520 | 578 | 728 | 855 | 1,004 | 1,180 | 1,387 | 1,629 |
| margin % | 50.7 | 52.6 | 58.5 | 62.8 | 62.8 | 62.8 | 62.8 | 62.8 | 62.8 |
| less depreciation | (116) | (116) | (117) | (126) | (148) | (174) | (205) | (241) | (283) |
| EBIT | 349 | 404 | 461 | 602 | 706 | 830 | 975 | 1,146 | 1,347 |
| less tax on EBIT | (157) | (184) | (217) | (255) | (299) | (351) | |||
| NOPAT | 445 | 522 | 613 | 721 | 847 | 995 | |||
| add depreciation | 116 | 116 | 117 | 126 | 148 | 174 | 205 | 241 | 283 |
| less capex | (58) | (72) | (95) | (290) | (342) | (353) | (359) | (355) | (339) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 312 | 413 | 334 | — | 329 | 434 | 567 | 732 | 939 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 312 | 371 | 437 | 508 | 587 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 602 | 706 | 830 | 975 | 1,146 | 1,347 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 706 | 830 | 975 | 1,146 | 1,347 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 522 | 613 | 721 | 847 | 995 |
| Dividends | (464) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 9 | 338 | 772 | 1,339 | 2,072 | 3,010 |
| Working capital | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Net block and other assets | 3,015 | 3,209 | 3,388 | 3,542 | 3,656 | 3,713 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,388 | 2,910 | 3,524 | 4,245 | 5,091 | 6,087 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 670 | 788 | 926 | 1,088 | 1,278 | |
| Investing (capex) | (342) | (353) | (359) | (355) | (339) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 329 | 434 | 567 | 732 | 939 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 329 | 434 | 567 | 732 | 939 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 17.5% | 62.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹248 | 53.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.