Models
GULF OIL LUB. IND. LTD.GULFOILLUBPetroleum Products
₹1,322per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,322implied FY26 P/E 17.4× · EV/EBITDA 12.1×
Against CMP ₹1,065.40+24.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies2.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,052₹1,860
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹865₹1,329
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,423 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,502 |
| Enterprise value | 5,924 |
| less net debt | 622 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,546 |
| ÷ 4.95 crore shares | ₹1,322 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,362 | 1,452 | 1,561 | 1,694 | 1,860 |
| 10.50% | 1,266 | 1,342 | 1,431 | 1,537 | 1,668 |
| 11.00% | 1,185 | 1,248 | 1,322 | 1,409 | 1,514 |
| 11.50% | 1,114 | 1,168 | 1,230 | 1,303 | 1,389 |
| 12.00% | 1,052 | 1,099 | 1,152 | 1,213 | 1,284 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,065.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,098 · 1,313 · 1,574 |
| Draws below the CMP | 6% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.59 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.34 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,999 | 3,301 | 3,631 | 4,056 | 4,522 | 5,043 | 5,622 | 6,269 | 6,990 |
| growth % | 36.8 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 343 | 421 | 472 | 491 | 547 | 610 | 680 | 759 | 846 |
| margin % | 11.4 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 |
| less depreciation | (40) | (51) | (56) | (69) | (77) | (86) | (96) | (107) | (119) |
| EBIT | 303 | 370 | 417 | 422 | 470 | 524 | 585 | 652 | 727 |
| less tax on EBIT | (108) | (120) | (134) | (150) | (167) | (186) | |||
| NOPAT | 314 | 350 | 390 | 435 | 485 | 541 | |||
| add depreciation | 40 | 51 | 56 | 69 | 77 | 86 | 96 | 107 | 119 |
| less capex | (23) | (28) | (53) | (51) | (59) | (75) | (94) | (116) | (143) |
| less working-capital build | — | (54) | (60) | (67) | (75) | (84) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 250 | 314 | 342 | — | 314 | 341 | 369 | 400 | 433 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 298 | 291 | 285 | 278 | 271 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 514, dividends at 69.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 422 | 470 | 524 | 585 | 652 | 727 |
| Interest at 12% on debt | (62) | (62) | (62) | (62) | (62) | |
| Profit before tax | 409 | 463 | 523 | 590 | 665 | |
| Profit after tax | 348 | 304 | 344 | 389 | 439 | 495 |
| Dividends | (241) | (211) | (239) | (270) | (305) | (344) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,136 | 1,193 | 1,248 | 1,301 | 1,350 | 1,394 |
| Working capital | 471 | 525 | 586 | 653 | 728 | 812 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,408 | 1,390 | 1,379 | 1,377 | 1,387 | 1,411 |
| Debt | 514 | 514 | 514 | 514 | 514 | 514 |
| Equity | 1,584 | 1,676 | 1,781 | 1,900 | 2,034 | 2,185 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 327 | 370 | 417 | 471 | 530 | |
| Investing (capex) | (59) | (75) | (94) | (116) | (143) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (211) | (239) | (270) | (305) | (344) | |
| Net change in cash | 57 | 56 | 53 | 49 | 44 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 268 | 295 | 324 | 354 | 388 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 12.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,322 | 24.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.