Models
H.G.INFRA ENGINEERING LTDHGINFRAConstruction
₹565per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹565implied FY26 P/E 19.8× · EV/EBITDA 8.0×
Against CMP ₹489.90+15.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies2.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3189%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹222₹1,252
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹430₹1,050
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 920 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,603 |
| Enterprise value | 8,522 |
| less net debt | (4,839) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,683 |
| ÷ 6.52 crore shares | ₹565 |
89% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 613 | 729 | 869 | 1,039 | 1,252 |
| 10.50% | 492 | 589 | 703 | 840 | 1,007 |
| 11.00% | 389 | 470 | 565 | 677 | 812 |
| 11.50% | 300 | 369 | 449 | 542 | 652 |
| 12.00% | 222 | 282 | 350 | 428 | 520 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹489.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 307 · 552 · 861 |
| Draws below the CMP | 37% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.18 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,622 | 5,378 | 5,056 | 5,235 | 5,418 | 5,608 | 5,804 | 6,007 | 6,217 |
| growth % | 23.2 | 16.4 | (6.0) | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| EBITDA | 895 | 1,080 | 1,075 | 1,063 | 1,100 | 1,138 | 1,178 | 1,219 | 1,262 |
| margin % | 19.4 | 20.1 | 21.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 |
| less depreciation | (96) | (141) | (144) | (168) | (173) | (179) | (186) | (192) | (199) |
| EBIT | 799 | 938 | 930 | 896 | 926 | 959 | 992 | 1,027 | 1,063 |
| less tax on EBIT | (245) | (254) | (263) | (272) | (281) | (291) | |||
| NOPAT | 650 | 673 | 696 | 721 | 746 | 772 | |||
| add depreciation | 96 | 141 | 144 | 168 | 173 | 179 | 186 | 192 | 199 |
| less capex | (338) | (233) | (1,559) | (953) | (986) | (819) | (640) | (446) | (239) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (477) | (543) | (1,980) | — | (140) | 56 | 267 | 492 | 732 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (133) | 48 | 205 | 341 | 458 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4,934, dividends at 3.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 896 | 926 | 959 | 992 | 1,027 | 1,063 |
| Interest at 10.4% on debt | (513) | (513) | (513) | (513) | (513) | |
| Profit before tax | 413 | 446 | 479 | 514 | 550 | |
| Profit after tax | 330 | 300 | 324 | 348 | 373 | 399 |
| Dividends | (13) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 95 | (429) | (758) | (878) | (773) | (429) |
| Working capital | (380) | (380) | (380) | (380) | (380) | (380) |
| Net block and other assets | 11,186 | 11,999 | 12,639 | 13,092 | 13,347 | 13,386 |
| Debt | 4,934 | 4,934 | 4,934 | 4,934 | 4,934 | 4,934 |
| Equity | 3,281 | 3,570 | 3,881 | 4,215 | 4,574 | 4,958 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 473 | 503 | 534 | 565 | 598 | |
| Investing (capex) | (986) | (819) | (640) | (446) | (239) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | |
| Net change in cash | (524) | (329) | (119) | 105 | 344 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (513) | (316) | (106) | 119 | 360 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3.5% | 20.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹565 | 15.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.