Models
HAPPIEST MINDS TECHNO LTDHAPPSTMNDSIT - Software
₹208per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹208implied FY26 P/E 14.1× · EV/EBITDA 11.5×
Against CMP ₹330.05−36.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies26.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹145₹335
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹330₹583
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,220 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,208 |
| Enterprise value | 4,427 |
| less net debt | (1,293) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,134 |
| ÷ 15.04 crore shares | ₹208 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 218 | 239 | 265 | 296 | 335 |
| 10.50% | 195 | 213 | 234 | 259 | 290 |
| 11.00% | 176 | 191 | 208 | 229 | 253 |
| 11.50% | 160 | 172 | 187 | 204 | 224 |
| 12.00% | 145 | 156 | 168 | 183 | 199 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹330.05; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 151 · 206 · 273 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.36 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,429 | 1,625 | 2,061 | 2,315 | 2,604 | 2,930 | 3,296 | 3,708 | 4,172 |
| growth % | 30.7 | 13.7 | 26.8 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| EBITDA | 353 | 350 | 342 | 385 | 432 | 486 | 547 | 616 | 693 |
| margin % | 24.7 | 21.5 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 |
| less depreciation | (42) | (58) | (89) | (88) | (99) | (111) | (125) | (141) | (159) |
| EBIT | 311 | 292 | 254 | 297 | 333 | 375 | 422 | 475 | 534 |
| less tax on EBIT | (75) | (84) | (95) | (106) | (120) | (135) | |||
| NOPAT | 222 | 249 | 281 | 316 | 355 | 399 | |||
| add depreciation | 42 | 58 | 89 | 88 | 99 | 111 | 125 | 141 | 159 |
| less capex | (131) | (8) | (8) | (3) | (3) | (36) | (77) | (128) | (190) |
| less working-capital build | — | (37) | (41) | (47) | (52) | (59) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 76 | 204 | 229 | — | 309 | 315 | 318 | 316 | 309 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 293 | 269 | 245 | 219 | 193 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,413, dividends at 44.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 297 | 333 | 375 | 422 | 475 | 534 |
| Interest at 7.6% on debt | (107) | (107) | (107) | (107) | (107) | |
| Profit before tax | 226 | 268 | 315 | 367 | 427 | |
| Profit after tax | 213 | 169 | 200 | 235 | 275 | 319 |
| Dividends | (94) | (75) | (89) | (104) | (121) | (141) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 120 | 274 | 420 | 553 | 667 | 755 |
| Working capital | 294 | 330 | 372 | 418 | 471 | 529 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,212 | 3,115 | 3,040 | 2,991 | 2,978 | 3,010 |
| Debt | 1,413 | 1,413 | 1,413 | 1,413 | 1,413 | 1,413 |
| Equity | 1,689 | 1,784 | 1,896 | 2,027 | 2,180 | 2,358 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 231 | 270 | 314 | 363 | 419 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (36) | (77) | (128) | (190) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (75) | (89) | (104) | (121) | (141) | |
| Net change in cash | 154 | 146 | 133 | 114 | 87 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 229 | 235 | 237 | 236 | 229 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12.5% | 16.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹208 | (36.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.