Models
HAPPY FORGINGS LIMITEDHAPPYFORGEIndustrial Products
₹372per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹372implied FY26 P/E 10.7× · EV/EBITDA 8.1×
Against CMP ₹2,168.40−82.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3195%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹260₹597
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹882₹2,470
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 209 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,609 |
| Enterprise value | 3,818 |
| less net debt | (304) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,514 |
| ÷ 9.44 crore shares | ₹372 |
95% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 388 | 426 | 471 | 527 | 597 |
| 10.50% | 348 | 380 | 417 | 462 | 517 |
| 11.00% | 315 | 341 | 372 | 409 | 453 |
| 11.50% | 286 | 308 | 334 | 365 | 401 |
| 12.00% | 260 | 280 | 302 | 328 | 358 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,168.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 275 · 368 · 481 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,358 | 1,409 | 1,546 | 1,701 | 1,871 | 2,058 | 2,264 | 2,490 |
| growth % | — | 3.7 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| EBITDA | 388 | 407 | 471 | 517 | 569 | 626 | 688 | 757 |
| margin % | 28.5 | 28.9 | 30.4 | 30.4 | 30.4 | 30.4 | 30.4 | 30.4 |
| less depreciation | (65) | (77) | (89) | (99) | (109) | (119) | (131) | (144) |
| EBIT | 323 | 330 | 382 | 418 | 460 | 506 | 557 | 613 |
| less tax on EBIT | (95) | (105) | (115) | (127) | (139) | (153) | ||
| NOPAT | 286 | 314 | 345 | 380 | 418 | 459 | ||
| add depreciation | 65 | 77 | 89 | 99 | 109 | 119 | 131 | 144 |
| less capex | (194) | (271) | (454) | (500) | (445) | (374) | (285) | (173) |
| less working-capital build | — | (57) | (62) | (69) | (76) | (83) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (5) | 21 | — | (144) | (54) | 56 | 189 | 347 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | (137) | (46) | 43 | 131 | 217 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 330, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 382 | 418 | 460 | 506 | 557 | 613 |
| Interest at 3.8% on debt | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |
| Profit before tax | 406 | 448 | 494 | 544 | 600 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 304 | 336 | 370 | 408 | 450 |
| Dividends | (28) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 26 | (128) | (191) | (144) | 35 | 373 |
| Working capital | 568 | 625 | 687 | 756 | 831 | 915 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,039 | 2,440 | 2,777 | 3,032 | 3,185 | 3,214 |
| Debt | 330 | 330 | 330 | 330 | 330 | 330 |
| Equity | 2,128 | 2,433 | 2,768 | 3,139 | 3,547 | 3,997 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 346 | 382 | 421 | 464 | 511 | |
| Investing (capex) | (500) | (445) | (374) | (285) | (173) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (154) | (63) | 47 | 180 | 338 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (154) | (63) | 47 | 180 | 338 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10% | 30.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹372 | (82.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.