Models
HARSHA ENGINEERS INT LTDHARSHAIndustrial Products
₹97per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹97implied FY26 P/E 5.7× · EV/EBITDA 5.1×
Against CMP ₹446.00−78.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3190%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹61₹167
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹313₹471
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 123 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,094 |
| Enterprise value | 1,217 |
| less net debt | (338) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 879 |
| ÷ 9.10 crore shares | ₹97 |
90% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 101 | 113 | 128 | 145 | 167 |
| 10.50% | 89 | 99 | 111 | 125 | 142 |
| 11.00% | 78 | 87 | 97 | 108 | 122 |
| 11.50% | 69 | 76 | 85 | 94 | 105 |
| 12.00% | 61 | 67 | 74 | 82 | 92 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹446.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 30 · 95 · 155 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,364 | 1,392 | 1,408 | 1,627 | 1,879 | 2,170 | 2,507 | 2,895 | 3,344 |
| growth % | — | 2.1 | 1.1 | 15.6 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| EBITDA | 189 | 171 | 147 | 240 | 276 | 319 | 368 | 426 | 492 |
| margin % | 13.9 | 12.3 | 10.5 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 |
| less depreciation | (36) | (39) | (41) | (47) | (54) | (63) | (73) | (84) | (97) |
| EBIT | 153 | 132 | 107 | 193 | 222 | 256 | 296 | 342 | 395 |
| less tax on EBIT | (54) | (62) | (71) | (83) | (95) | (110) | |||
| NOPAT | 139 | 160 | 185 | 213 | 246 | 284 | |||
| add depreciation | 36 | 39 | 41 | 47 | 54 | 63 | 73 | 84 | 97 |
| less capex | (76) | (75) | (209) | (120) | (139) | (139) | (136) | (129) | (116) |
| less working-capital build | — | (90) | (104) | (120) | (138) | (160) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 56 | 61 | (3) | — | (14) | 5 | 30 | 63 | 105 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (14) | 4 | 23 | 44 | 66 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 371, dividends at 5.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 193 | 222 | 256 | 296 | 342 | 395 |
| Interest at 5.7% on debt | (21) | (21) | (21) | (21) | (21) | |
| Profit before tax | 201 | 235 | 275 | 320 | 373 | |
| Profit after tax | 155 | 145 | 169 | 198 | 231 | 269 |
| Dividends | (9) | (9) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (16) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 33 | (5) | (26) | (23) | 11 | 85 |
| Working capital | 579 | 669 | 773 | 893 | 1,031 | 1,191 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,454 | 1,539 | 1,615 | 1,679 | 1,724 | 1,744 |
| Debt | 371 | 371 | 371 | 371 | 371 | 371 |
| Equity | 1,402 | 1,538 | 1,697 | 1,884 | 2,101 | 2,354 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 109 | 129 | 151 | 177 | 206 | |
| Investing (capex) | (139) | (139) | (136) | (129) | (116) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (9) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (16) | |
| Net change in cash | (38) | (21) | 3 | 34 | 74 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (30) | (11) | 15 | 48 | 90 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15.5% | 14.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹97 | (78.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.