Models
HATSUN AGRO PRODUCT LTD.HATSUNFood Products
₹123per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹123implied FY25 P/E 7.8× · EV/EBITDA 4.7×
Against CMP ₹1,229.90−90.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3080%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹72₹223
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹855₹1,222
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 967 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,803 |
| Enterprise value | 4,770 |
| less net debt | (2,039) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,731 |
| ÷ 22.28 crore shares | ₹123 |
80% of the value sits after FY30. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 130 | 147 | 167 | 192 | 223 |
| 10.50% | 112 | 126 | 143 | 163 | 187 |
| 11.00% | 97 | 109 | 123 | 139 | 159 |
| 11.50% | 84 | 94 | 105 | 119 | 135 |
| 12.00% | 72 | 81 | 91 | 102 | 116 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,229.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 50 · 121 · 197 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.92 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.34 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,700 | 9,396 | 10,147 | 10,959 | 11,836 | 12,783 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,010 | 1,090 | 1,177 | 1,271 | 1,373 | 1,483 |
| margin % | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 |
| less depreciation | (470) | (507) | (548) | (592) | (639) | (690) |
| EBIT | 540 | 583 | 629 | 679 | 734 | 793 |
| less tax on EBIT | (141) | (152) | (164) | (177) | (192) | (207) |
| NOPAT | 399 | 430 | 465 | 502 | 542 | 586 |
| add depreciation | 470 | 507 | 548 | 592 | 639 | 690 |
| less capex | (658) | (714) | (743) | (772) | (800) | (828) |
| less working-capital build | — | (60) | (65) | (70) | (75) | (81) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 164 | 205 | 253 | 306 | 366 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 156 | 176 | 195 | 212 | 229 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,097, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 540 | 583 | 629 | 679 | 734 | 793 |
| Interest at 8.7% on debt | (182) | (182) | (182) | (182) | (182) | |
| Profit before tax | 400 | 447 | 497 | 551 | 610 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 296 | 330 | 367 | 408 | 451 |
| Dividends | (134) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 58 | 87 | 158 | 275 | 446 | 678 |
| Working capital | 751 | 811 | 875 | 945 | 1,021 | 1,102 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,056 | 4,263 | 4,458 | 4,638 | 4,799 | 4,937 |
| Debt | 2,097 | 2,097 | 2,097 | 2,097 | 2,097 | 2,097 |
| Equity | 1,718 | 2,013 | 2,343 | 2,711 | 3,118 | 3,569 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 743 | 813 | 889 | 971 | 1,060 | |
| Investing (capex) | (714) | (743) | (772) | (800) | (828) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 29 | 71 | 118 | 171 | 231 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 29 | 71 | 118 | 171 | 231 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 11.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹123 | (90.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.