Models
HAVELLS INDIA LIMITEDHAVELLSConsumer Durables
₹283per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹283implied FY26 P/E 10.9× · EV/EBITDA 7.9×
Against CMP ₹1,111.00−74.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹216₹417
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,106₹1,621
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,727 |
| PV of terminal value | 14,259 |
| Enterprise value | 16,986 |
| less net debt | 791 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 17,777 |
| ÷ 62.76 crore shares | ₹283 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 293 | 315 | 343 | 376 | 417 |
| 10.50% | 269 | 288 | 310 | 337 | 369 |
| 11.00% | 249 | 265 | 283 | 305 | 331 |
| 11.50% | 231 | 245 | 261 | 279 | 300 |
| 12.00% | 216 | 228 | 241 | 256 | 274 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,111.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 230 · 281 · 343 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16,911 | 18,590 | 21,778 | 22,528 | 23,316 | 24,132 | 24,977 | 25,851 | 26,756 |
| growth % | 21.3 | 9.9 | 17.1 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,599 | 1,843 | 2,131 | 2,155 | 2,238 | 2,317 | 2,398 | 2,482 | 2,569 |
| margin % | 9.5 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| less depreciation | (296) | (339) | (400) | (432) | (443) | (459) | (475) | (491) | (508) |
| EBIT | 1,303 | 1,504 | 1,730 | 1,723 | 1,795 | 1,858 | 1,923 | 1,991 | 2,060 |
| less tax on EBIT | (412) | (429) | (444) | (460) | (476) | (492) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,311 | 1,366 | 1,414 | 1,464 | 1,515 | 1,568 | |||
| add depreciation | 296 | 339 | 400 | 432 | 443 | 459 | 475 | 491 | 508 |
| less capex | (588) | (786) | (766) | (1,484) | (1,539) | (1,332) | (1,109) | (869) | (610) |
| less working-capital build | — | (81) | (84) | (87) | (90) | (93) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (23) | 1,167 | 749 | — | 189 | 456 | 742 | 1,047 | 1,373 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 180 | 390 | 572 | 727 | 858 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 37.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,723 | 1,795 | 1,858 | 1,923 | 1,991 | 2,060 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 1,795 | 1,858 | 1,923 | 1,991 | 2,060 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,691 | 1,366 | 1,414 | 1,464 | 1,515 | 1,568 |
| Dividends | (627) | (507) | (525) | (543) | (562) | (582) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 791 | 473 | 405 | 604 | 1,089 | 1,881 |
| Working capital | 2,321 | 2,402 | 2,486 | 2,573 | 2,663 | 2,756 |
| Net block and other assets | 11,635 | 12,731 | 13,604 | 14,239 | 14,616 | 14,718 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 9,469 | 10,328 | 11,218 | 12,138 | 13,091 | 14,077 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,728 | 1,789 | 1,851 | 1,916 | 1,983 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,539) | (1,332) | (1,109) | (869) | (610) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (507) | (525) | (543) | (562) | (582) | |
| Net change in cash | (318) | (68) | 199 | 485 | 791 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 189 | 456 | 742 | 1,047 | 1,373 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3.5% | 9.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹283 | (74.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.