Models
HBL ENGINEERING LTDHBLENGINEIndustrial Products
₹893per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹893implied FY26 P/E 26.8× · EV/EBITDA 22.4×
Against CMP ₹717.55+24.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies21.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹679₹1,320
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹613₹1,122
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 4,180 |
| PV of terminal value | 20,085 |
| Enterprise value | 24,266 |
| less net debt | 484 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 24,750 |
| ÷ 27.72 crore shares | ₹893 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 923 | 995 | 1,082 | 1,188 | 1,320 |
| 10.50% | 848 | 908 | 979 | 1,064 | 1,168 |
| 11.00% | 783 | 834 | 893 | 962 | 1,046 |
| 11.50% | 728 | 771 | 820 | 878 | 947 |
| 12.00% | 679 | 716 | 758 | 807 | 864 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹717.55; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 682 · 882 · 1,152 |
| Draws below the CMP | 16% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.64 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.55 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,369 | 2,233 | 1,967 | 3,303 | 4,294 | 5,582 | 7,256 | 9,433 | 12,263 |
| growth % | 10.7 | 63.2 | (11.9) | 67.9 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 153 | 395 | 391 | 1,082 | 1,408 | 1,831 | 2,380 | 3,094 | 4,022 |
| margin % | 11.2 | 17.7 | 19.9 | 32.8 | 32.8 | 32.8 | 32.8 | 32.8 | 32.8 |
| less depreciation | (35) | (41) | (44) | (51) | (64) | (84) | (109) | (141) | (184) |
| EBIT | 117 | 354 | 347 | 1,031 | 1,344 | 1,747 | 2,271 | 2,953 | 3,838 |
| less tax on EBIT | (266) | (347) | (451) | (586) | (762) | (990) | |||
| NOPAT | 765 | 997 | 1,296 | 1,685 | 2,191 | 2,848 | |||
| add depreciation | 35 | 41 | 44 | 51 | 64 | 84 | 109 | 141 | 184 |
| less capex | (65) | (53) | (122) | (150) | (198) | (218) | (232) | (236) | (221) |
| less working-capital build | — | (307) | (399) | (519) | (675) | (877) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 86 | 371 | 341 | — | 557 | 763 | 1,043 | 1,422 | 1,934 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 529 | 653 | 803 | 987 | 1,209 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 44, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,031 | 1,344 | 1,747 | 2,271 | 2,953 | 3,838 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,340 | 1,744 | 2,268 | 2,949 | 3,835 | |
| Profit after tax | 815 | 995 | 1,294 | 1,683 | 2,188 | 2,845 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 528 | 1,083 | 1,843 | 2,883 | 4,302 | 6,234 |
| Working capital | 1,023 | 1,331 | 1,730 | 2,249 | 2,924 | 3,801 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,390 | 1,523 | 1,657 | 1,780 | 1,875 | 1,912 |
| Debt | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 |
| Equity | 2,213 | 3,208 | 4,502 | 6,184 | 8,373 | 11,218 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 752 | 978 | 1,272 | 1,655 | 2,152 | |
| Investing (capex) | (198) | (218) | (232) | (236) | (221) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 554 | 760 | 1,040 | 1,419 | 1,931 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 554 | 760 | 1,040 | 1,419 | 1,931 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 32.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹893 | 24.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.