Models
HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTDHCLTECHIT - Software
₹1,150per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,150implied FY26 P/E 17.9× · EV/EBITDA 11.8×
Against CMP ₹1,206.10−4.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies12.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹902₹1,643
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,030₹1,780
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 77,889 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,26,184 |
| Enterprise value | 3,04,074 |
| less net debt | 8,106 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,12,180 |
| ÷ 271.50 crore shares | ₹1,150 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,186 | 1,269 | 1,369 | 1,491 | 1,643 |
| 10.50% | 1,099 | 1,168 | 1,249 | 1,347 | 1,467 |
| 11.00% | 1,024 | 1,082 | 1,150 | 1,230 | 1,326 |
| 11.50% | 959 | 1,009 | 1,066 | 1,132 | 1,211 |
| 12.00% | 902 | 945 | 993 | 1,050 | 1,115 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,206.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 940 · 1,141 · 1,383 |
| Draws below the CMP | 64% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.32 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,01,456 | 1,09,913 | 1,17,055 | 1,30,144 | 1,44,460 | 1,60,350 | 1,77,989 | 1,97,568 | 2,19,300 |
| growth % | 18.5 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 22,628 | 24,198 | 25,504 | 25,796 | 28,603 | 31,749 | 35,242 | 39,118 | 43,421 |
| margin % | 22.3 | 22.0 | 21.8 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 19.8 |
| less depreciation | (4,145) | (4,173) | (4,084) | (4,355) | (4,767) | (5,292) | (5,874) | (6,520) | (7,237) |
| EBIT | 18,483 | 20,025 | 21,420 | 21,441 | 23,836 | 26,458 | 29,368 | 32,599 | 36,185 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5,296) | (5,887) | (6,535) | (7,254) | (8,052) | (8,938) | |||
| NOPAT | 16,145 | 17,948 | 19,923 | 22,114 | 24,547 | 27,247 | |||
| add depreciation | 4,145 | 4,173 | 4,084 | 4,355 | 4,767 | 5,292 | 5,874 | 6,520 | 7,237 |
| less capex | (1,661) | (1,048) | (1,108) | (1,422) | (1,589) | (2,910) | (4,503) | (6,411) | (8,684) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2,648) | (2,940) | (3,263) | (3,622) | (4,021) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 16,348 | 21,400 | 21,153 | — | 18,478 | 19,364 | 20,222 | 21,033 | 21,779 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 17,539 | 16,558 | 15,578 | 14,598 | 13,617 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 159, dividends at 87.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 21,441 | 23,836 | 26,458 | 29,368 | 32,599 | 36,185 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |
| Profit before tax | 23,823 | 26,445 | 29,355 | 32,586 | 36,172 | |
| Profit after tax | 16,642 | 17,939 | 19,913 | 22,105 | 24,537 | 27,237 |
| Dividends | (14,618) | (15,750) | (17,484) | (19,408) | (21,544) | (23,914) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 8,265 | 10,983 | 12,854 | 13,658 | 13,138 | 10,993 |
| Working capital | 24,068 | 26,716 | 29,656 | 32,919 | 36,541 | 40,562 |
| Net block and other assets | 83,925 | 80,747 | 78,366 | 76,995 | 76,887 | 78,334 |
| Debt | 159 | 159 | 159 | 159 | 159 | 159 |
| Equity | 75,197 | 77,386 | 79,815 | 82,512 | 85,505 | 88,828 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 20,058 | 22,265 | 24,715 | 27,435 | 30,454 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,589) | (2,910) | (4,503) | (6,411) | (8,684) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (15,750) | (17,484) | (19,408) | (21,544) | (23,914) | |
| Net change in cash | 2,718 | 1,871 | 804 | (520) | (2,145) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 18,469 | 19,355 | 20,212 | 21,024 | 21,769 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 19.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,150 | (4.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.