Models
HDFC AMC LIMITEDHDFCAMCCapital Markets
₹1,738per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,738implied FY26 P/E 20.3× · EV/EBITDA 22.6×
Against CMP ₹2,403.90−27.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies26.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,333₹2,546
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,206₹2,967
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 15,877 |
| PV of terminal value | 58,622 |
| Enterprise value | 74,499 |
| less net debt | 12 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 74,511 |
| ÷ 42.87 crore shares | ₹1,738 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,797 | 1,933 | 2,097 | 2,296 | 2,546 |
| 10.50% | 1,654 | 1,767 | 1,901 | 2,062 | 2,258 |
| 11.00% | 1,532 | 1,627 | 1,738 | 1,870 | 2,027 |
| 11.50% | 1,426 | 1,507 | 1,601 | 1,710 | 1,839 |
| 12.00% | 1,333 | 1,403 | 1,483 | 1,575 | 1,682 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,403.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,367 · 1,728 · 2,182 |
| Draws below the CMP | 96% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.40 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,167 | 2,584 | 3,498 | 4,122 | 4,864 | 5,740 | 6,773 | 7,992 | 9,431 |
| growth % | — | 19.3 | 35.4 | 17.8 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,617 | 1,957 | 2,792 | 3,295 | 3,886 | 4,586 | 5,411 | 6,386 | 7,535 |
| margin % | 74.6 | 75.7 | 79.8 | 79.9 | 79.9 | 79.9 | 79.9 | 79.9 | 79.9 |
| less depreciation | (53) | (52) | (59) | (73) | (88) | (103) | (122) | (144) | (170) |
| EBIT | 1,564 | 1,905 | 2,733 | 3,222 | 3,799 | 4,483 | 5,290 | 6,242 | 7,365 |
| less tax on EBIT | (738) | (870) | (1,027) | (1,211) | (1,429) | (1,687) | |||
| NOPAT | 2,484 | 2,929 | 3,456 | 4,078 | 4,812 | 5,679 | |||
| add depreciation | 53 | 52 | 59 | 73 | 88 | 103 | 122 | 144 | 170 |
| less capex | (7) | (14) | (40) | (20) | (24) | (53) | (90) | (139) | (204) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,142 | 1,601 | 2,035 | — | 2,992 | 3,507 | 4,110 | 4,817 | 5,645 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2,840 | 2,999 | 3,166 | 3,343 | 3,529 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 67.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 3,222 | 3,799 | 4,483 | 5,290 | 6,242 | 7,365 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 3,799 | 4,483 | 5,290 | 6,242 | 7,365 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,858 | 2,929 | 3,456 | 4,078 | 4,812 | 5,679 |
| Dividends | (1,925) | (1,974) | (2,329) | (2,749) | (3,244) | (3,827) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 12 | 1,030 | 2,207 | 3,569 | 5,142 | 6,959 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 9,980 | 9,917 | 9,866 | 9,834 | 9,830 | 9,864 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 9,229 | 10,184 | 11,310 | 12,640 | 14,209 | 16,060 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3,017 | 3,559 | 4,200 | 4,956 | 5,848 | |
| Investing (capex) | (24) | (53) | (90) | (139) | (204) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1,974) | (2,329) | (2,749) | (3,244) | (3,827) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,018 | 1,178 | 1,361 | 1,573 | 1,817 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,992 | 3,507 | 4,110 | 4,817 | 5,645 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18% | 79.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,738 | (27.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.