Models
HEALTHCARE GLOB. ENT. LTDHCGHealthcare Services
₹119per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹119implied FY26 P/E 76.5× · EV/EBITDA 5.1×
Against CMP ₹693.05−82.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹85₹185
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹513₹805
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 474 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,670 |
| Enterprise value | 2,144 |
| less net debt | (374) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,770 |
| ÷ 14.93 crore shares | ₹119 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 123 | 135 | 148 | 164 | 185 |
| 10.50% | 112 | 121 | 132 | 145 | 161 |
| 11.00% | 102 | 109 | 119 | 129 | 142 |
| 11.50% | 93 | 100 | 107 | 116 | 127 |
| 12.00% | 85 | 91 | 98 | 105 | 114 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹693.05; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 53 · 116 · 186 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.93 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.24 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.18 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,694 | 1,912 | 2,223 | 2,545 | 2,914 | 3,337 | 3,821 | 4,375 | 5,009 |
| growth % | 21.2 | 12.8 | 16.3 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| EBITDA | 299 | 333 | 387 | 421 | 481 | 551 | 630 | 722 | 827 |
| margin % | 17.6 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| less depreciation | (163) | (174) | (211) | (244) | (280) | (320) | (367) | (420) | (481) |
| EBIT | 135 | 159 | 176 | 177 | 201 | 230 | 264 | 302 | 346 |
| less tax on EBIT | (29) | (33) | (38) | (43) | (49) | (56) | |||
| NOPAT | 148 | 168 | 193 | 221 | 253 | 289 | |||
| add depreciation | 163 | 174 | 211 | 244 | 280 | 320 | 367 | 420 | 481 |
| less capex | (133) | (186) | (209) | (292) | (335) | (384) | (440) | (504) | (577) |
| less working-capital build | — | (19) | (22) | (25) | (28) | (32) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 118 | 99 | 108 | — | 94 | 108 | 123 | 141 | 161 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 89 | 92 | 95 | 98 | 101 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 910, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 177 | 201 | 230 | 264 | 302 | 346 |
| Interest at 18.5% on debt | (168) | (168) | (168) | (168) | (168) | |
| Profit before tax | 33 | 62 | 95 | 133 | 177 | |
| Profit after tax | 14 | 27 | 52 | 80 | 112 | 148 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 536 | 489 | 456 | 438 | 438 | 457 |
| Working capital | 130 | 149 | 170 | 195 | 223 | 255 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,257 | 3,312 | 3,376 | 3,449 | 3,532 | 3,629 |
| Debt | 910 | 910 | 910 | 910 | 910 | 910 |
| Equity | 1,410 | 1,438 | 1,489 | 1,569 | 1,681 | 1,829 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 288 | 351 | 422 | 503 | 597 | |
| Investing (capex) | (335) | (384) | (440) | (504) | (577) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (47) | (33) | (18) | (0) | 20 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (47) | (33) | (18) | (0) | 20 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14.5% | 16.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹119 | (82.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.