Models
HEIDELBERGCEMENT (I) LTDHEIDELBERGCement & Cement Products
₹104per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹104implied FY26 P/E 20.3× · EV/EBITDA 8.2×
Against CMP ₹150.40−30.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies18.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹83₹146
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹136₹221
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 704 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,594 |
| Enterprise value | 2,298 |
| less net debt | 67 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,365 |
| ÷ 22.66 crore shares | ₹104 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 108 | 115 | 123 | 133 | 146 |
| 10.50% | 100 | 106 | 113 | 121 | 131 |
| 11.00% | 94 | 99 | 104 | 111 | 119 |
| 11.50% | 88 | 92 | 97 | 103 | 109 |
| 12.00% | 83 | 87 | 91 | 96 | 101 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹150.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 83 · 104 · 129 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.33 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,238 | 2,366 | 2,149 | 2,330 | 2,528 | 2,742 | 2,976 | 3,228 | 3,503 |
| growth % | (2.6) | 5.7 | (9.2) | 8.4 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| EBITDA | 249 | 317 | 239 | 279 | 303 | 329 | 357 | 387 | 420 |
| margin % | 11.1 | 13.4 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| less depreciation | (112) | (110) | (110) | (109) | (119) | (129) | (140) | (152) | (165) |
| EBIT | 137 | 207 | 130 | 170 | 185 | 200 | 217 | 236 | 256 |
| less tax on EBIT | (46) | (50) | (54) | (59) | (64) | (69) | |||
| NOPAT | 124 | 135 | 146 | 158 | 172 | 186 | |||
| add depreciation | 112 | 110 | 110 | 109 | 119 | 129 | 140 | 152 | 165 |
| less capex | (28) | (74) | (109) | (52) | (56) | (84) | (117) | (154) | (198) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 199 | 276 | 155 | — | 198 | 191 | 182 | 169 | 153 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 188 | 163 | 140 | 117 | 96 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 100% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 170 | 185 | 200 | 217 | 236 | 256 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 185 | 200 | 217 | 236 | 256 | |
| Profit after tax | 134 | 135 | 146 | 158 | 172 | 186 |
| Dividends | (159) | (135) | (146) | (158) | (172) | (186) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 67 | 131 | 176 | 199 | 196 | 163 |
| Working capital | (91) | (91) | (91) | (91) | (91) | (91) |
| Net block and other assets | 2,461 | 2,398 | 2,353 | 2,330 | 2,333 | 2,366 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,372 | 1,372 | 1,372 | 1,372 | 1,372 | 1,372 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 253 | 275 | 298 | 324 | 351 | |
| Investing (capex) | (56) | (84) | (117) | (154) | (198) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (135) | (146) | (158) | (172) | (186) | |
| Net change in cash | 63 | 45 | 23 | (3) | (33) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 198 | 191 | 182 | 169 | 153 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8.5% | 12% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹104 | (30.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.