Models
Hercules Investments LimitedBSE 505720Industrial Manufacturing
₹154per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹154implied FY24 P/E 13.3× · EV/EBITDA 16.6×
Against CMP ₹118.80+30.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies10.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2978%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹120₹224
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹86₹226
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY25–FY29 free cash flow | 106 |
| PV of terminal value | 377 |
| Enterprise value | 482 |
| less net debt | 12 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 494 |
| ÷ 3.20 crore shares | ₹154 |
78% of the value sits after FY29. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 159 | 171 | 185 | 202 | 224 |
| 10.50% | 147 | 157 | 168 | 182 | 199 |
| 11.00% | 137 | 145 | 154 | 166 | 179 |
| 11.50% | 128 | 135 | 143 | 152 | 163 |
| 12.00% | 120 | 126 | 132 | 140 | 150 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹118.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 122 · 153 · 193 |
| Draws below the CMP | 8% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.59 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.56 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 151 | 180 | 214 | 254 | 303 | 360 | 428 |
| growth % | — | 19.1 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| EBITDA | 103 | 29 | 35 | 41 | 49 | 58 | 69 |
| margin % | 68.3 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (10) |
| EBIT | 99 | 25 | 29 | 35 | 42 | 50 | 59 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (7) | (8) | (10) | (11) | (13) | |
| NOPAT | 19 | 23 | 27 | 32 | 38 | 46 | |
| add depreciation | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 |
| less capex | (5) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 5 | — | 21 | 24 | 27 | 32 | 36 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 20 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 25 | 29 | 35 | 42 | 50 | 59 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 29 | 35 | 42 | 50 | 59 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 23 | 27 | 32 | 38 | 46 |
| Dividends | (8) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 12 | 33 | 57 | 84 | 116 | 152 |
| Working capital | 19 | 23 | 27 | 32 | 38 | 46 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,019 | 1,018 | 1,017 | 1,016 | 1,017 | 1,019 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 948 | 971 | 998 | 1,030 | 1,068 | 1,114 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 24 | 29 | 34 | 41 | 49 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 21 | 24 | 27 | 32 | 36 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 21 | 24 | 27 | 32 | 36 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY24 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19% | 16.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹154 | 30.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.