Models
HERITAGE FOODS LTDHERITGFOODFood Products
₹155per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹155implied FY26 P/E 10.6× · EV/EBITDA 6.2×
Against CMP ₹419.00−63.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies42.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31109%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹97₹271
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹293₹540
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (152) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,847 |
| Enterprise value | 1,695 |
| less net debt | (259) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,436 |
| ÷ 9.28 crore shares | ₹155 |
109% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 162 | 182 | 206 | 235 | 271 |
| 10.50% | 142 | 158 | 178 | 201 | 230 |
| 11.00% | 125 | 139 | 155 | 174 | 197 |
| 11.50% | 110 | 122 | 135 | 151 | 170 |
| 12.00% | 97 | 107 | 118 | 132 | 147 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹419.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 99 · 153 · 216 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.21 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,241 | 3,794 | 4,135 | 4,526 | 4,956 | 5,427 | 5,942 | 6,507 | 7,125 |
| growth % | 20.9 | 17.1 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| EBITDA | 130 | 203 | 315 | 275 | 302 | 331 | 362 | 397 | 435 |
| margin % | 4.0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 |
| less depreciation | (56) | (61) | (70) | (81) | (89) | (98) | (107) | (117) | (128) |
| EBIT | 74 | 142 | 246 | 194 | 213 | 233 | 256 | 280 | 306 |
| less tax on EBIT | (49) | (54) | (59) | (65) | (71) | (78) | |||
| NOPAT | 145 | 159 | 174 | 191 | 209 | 229 | |||
| add depreciation | 56 | 61 | 70 | 81 | 89 | 98 | 107 | 117 | 128 |
| less capex | (83) | (127) | (176) | (382) | (416) | (371) | (314) | (242) | (154) |
| less working-capital build | — | (18) | (19) | (21) | (23) | (25) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (144) | 263 | 37 | — | (186) | (118) | (37) | 61 | 178 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (176) | (101) | (29) | 42 | 111 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 324, dividends at 15.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 194 | 213 | 233 | 256 | 280 | 306 |
| Interest at 7.5% on debt | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | |
| Profit before tax | 189 | 209 | 231 | 255 | 282 | |
| Profit after tax | 150 | 141 | 156 | 173 | 191 | 211 |
| Dividends | (23) | (22) | (24) | (27) | (30) | (33) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 65 | (161) | (322) | (404) | (391) | (263) |
| Working capital | 185 | 202 | 222 | 243 | 266 | 291 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,700 | 2,027 | 2,301 | 2,508 | 2,633 | 2,658 |
| Debt | 324 | 324 | 324 | 324 | 324 | 324 |
| Equity | 1,108 | 1,227 | 1,359 | 1,505 | 1,666 | 1,844 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 213 | 235 | 259 | 285 | 314 | |
| Investing (capex) | (416) | (371) | (314) | (242) | (154) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (22) | (24) | (27) | (30) | (33) | |
| Net change in cash | (226) | (161) | (82) | 13 | 127 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (204) | (137) | (55) | 43 | 160 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9.5% | 6.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹155 | (63.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.