Models
HERO MOTOCORP LIMITEDHEROMOTOCOAutomobiles
₹6,221per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹6,221implied FY26 P/E 22.8× · EV/EBITDA 17.9×
Against CMP ₹5,221.50+19.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies11.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹4,778₹9,101
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹4,672₹6,389
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 26,747 |
| PV of terminal value | 97,543 |
| Enterprise value | 1,24,290 |
| less net debt | 188 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,24,478 |
| ÷ 20.01 crore shares | ₹6,221 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 6,430 | 6,916 | 7,498 | 8,211 | 9,101 |
| 10.50% | 5,921 | 6,324 | 6,801 | 7,374 | 8,073 |
| 11.00% | 5,485 | 5,824 | 6,221 | 6,689 | 7,251 |
| 11.50% | 5,107 | 5,397 | 5,730 | 6,120 | 6,580 |
| 12.00% | 4,778 | 5,026 | 5,311 | 5,638 | 6,021 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹5,221.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 4,918 · 6,189 · 7,774 |
| Draws below the CMP | 18% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.48 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 34,158 | 37,789 | 40,923 | 47,411 | 54,997 | 63,797 | 74,004 | 85,845 | 99,580 |
| growth % | 15.6 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 15.9 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| EBITDA | 4,094 | 5,190 | 5,946 | 6,926 | 8,030 | 9,314 | 10,805 | 12,533 | 14,539 |
| margin % | 12.0 | 13.7 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 |
| less depreciation | (697) | (757) | (825) | (855) | (990) | (1,148) | (1,332) | (1,545) | (1,792) |
| EBIT | 3,396 | 4,432 | 5,121 | 6,071 | 7,040 | 8,166 | 9,473 | 10,988 | 12,746 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,427) | (1,654) | (1,919) | (2,226) | (2,582) | (2,995) | |||
| NOPAT | 4,644 | 5,385 | 6,247 | 7,246 | 8,406 | 9,751 | |||
| add depreciation | 697 | 757 | 825 | 855 | 990 | 1,148 | 1,332 | 1,545 | 1,792 |
| less capex | (604) | (788) | (857) | (1,100) | (1,265) | (1,445) | (1,650) | (1,884) | (2,151) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2,010 | 4,135 | 3,441 | — | 5,110 | 5,950 | 6,928 | 8,067 | 9,392 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 4,851 | 5,088 | 5,337 | 5,599 | 5,872 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 499, dividends at 61.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 6,071 | 7,040 | 8,166 | 9,473 | 10,988 | 12,746 |
| Interest at 16.4% on debt | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | |
| Profit before tax | 6,958 | 8,084 | 9,391 | 10,906 | 12,664 | |
| Profit after tax | 5,742 | 5,323 | 6,184 | 7,184 | 8,343 | 9,688 |
| Dividends | (3,507) | (3,252) | (3,779) | (4,389) | (5,098) | (5,920) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 687 | 2,482 | 4,591 | 7,068 | 9,974 | 13,384 |
| Working capital | (2,689) | (2,689) | (2,689) | (2,689) | (2,689) | (2,689) |
| Net block and other assets | 35,455 | 35,730 | 36,026 | 36,345 | 36,684 | 37,042 |
| Debt | 499 | 499 | 499 | 499 | 499 | 499 |
| Equity | 21,811 | 23,882 | 26,287 | 29,082 | 32,327 | 36,096 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 6,313 | 7,333 | 8,516 | 9,889 | 11,481 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,265) | (1,445) | (1,650) | (1,884) | (2,151) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3,252) | (3,779) | (4,389) | (5,098) | (5,920) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,796 | 2,109 | 2,476 | 2,906 | 3,410 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 5,048 | 5,888 | 6,866 | 8,004 | 9,330 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16% | 14.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹6,221 | 19.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.