Models
HIMADRI SPECIALITY CHEM LHSCLChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹163per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹163implied FY26 P/E 10.2× · EV/EBITDA 9.2×
Against CMP ₹664.25−75.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹122₹246
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹419₹820
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,792 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,056 |
| Enterprise value | 8,849 |
| less net debt | (602) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 8,247 |
| ÷ 50.45 crore shares | ₹163 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 169 | 183 | 200 | 221 | 246 |
| 10.50% | 155 | 166 | 180 | 197 | 217 |
| 11.00% | 142 | 152 | 163 | 177 | 193 |
| 11.50% | 132 | 140 | 149 | 161 | 174 |
| 12.00% | 122 | 129 | 137 | 147 | 158 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹664.25; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 135 · 162 · 196 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.71 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,172 | 4,185 | 4,613 | 4,661 | 4,707 | 4,754 | 4,802 | 4,850 | 4,898 |
| growth % | 49.5 | 0.3 | 10.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| EBITDA | 369 | 645 | 854 | 962 | 970 | 979 | 989 | 999 | 1,009 |
| margin % | 8.8 | 15.4 | 18.5 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 |
| less depreciation | (51) | (50) | (55) | (68) | (71) | (71) | (72) | (73) | (73) |
| EBIT | 318 | 595 | 799 | 894 | 899 | 908 | 917 | 926 | 936 |
| less tax on EBIT | (220) | (221) | (223) | (226) | (228) | (230) | |||
| NOPAT | 674 | 678 | 685 | 692 | 698 | 705 | |||
| add depreciation | 51 | 50 | 55 | 68 | 71 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 73 |
| less capex | (83) | (52) | (171) | (450) | (452) | (364) | (274) | (182) | (88) |
| less working-capital build | — | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (29) | 352 | 276 | — | 286 | 381 | 479 | 578 | 679 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 271 | 326 | 369 | 401 | 425 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 767, dividends at 3.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 894 | 899 | 908 | 917 | 926 | 936 |
| Interest at 12% on debt | (92) | (92) | (92) | (92) | (92) | |
| Profit before tax | 807 | 816 | 825 | 834 | 844 | |
| Profit after tax | 751 | 609 | 615 | 622 | 629 | 636 |
| Dividends | (30) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (25) | (25) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 165 | 357 | 645 | 1,031 | 1,515 | 2,100 |
| Working capital | 1,084 | 1,095 | 1,106 | 1,117 | 1,128 | 1,139 |
| Net block and other assets | 5,058 | 5,439 | 5,731 | 5,933 | 6,042 | 6,057 |
| Debt | 767 | 767 | 767 | 767 | 767 | 767 |
| Equity | 4,762 | 5,347 | 5,938 | 6,536 | 7,141 | 7,752 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 668 | 676 | 683 | 691 | 698 | |
| Investing (capex) | (452) | (364) | (274) | (182) | (88) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (25) | (25) | |
| Net change in cash | 193 | 288 | 385 | 484 | 585 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 216 | 312 | 409 | 509 | 610 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1% | 20.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹163 | (75.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.