Models
HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTDHINDALCONon - Ferrous Metals
₹196per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹196implied FY26 P/E 2.7× · EV/EBITDA 4.5×
Against CMP ₹981.50−80.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31113%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹10₹570
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹732₹1,176
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (15,931) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,41,741 |
| Enterprise value | 1,25,810 |
| less net debt | (82,309) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 43,501 |
| ÷ 222.00 crore shares | ₹196 |
113% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 220 | 283 | 360 | 453 | 570 |
| 10.50% | 155 | 208 | 270 | 345 | 437 |
| 11.00% | 100 | 144 | 196 | 257 | 331 |
| 11.50% | 52 | 90 | 133 | 184 | 245 |
| 12.00% | 10 | 43 | 80 | 123 | 173 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹981.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (82) · 188 · 466 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.91 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.33 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,23,202 | 2,15,962 | 2,38,496 | 2,74,944 | 3,17,560 | 3,66,782 | 4,23,633 | 4,89,297 | 5,65,138 |
| growth % | 14.4 | (3.2) | 10.4 | 15.3 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| EBITDA | 22,707 | 23,893 | 30,926 | 27,921 | 32,391 | 37,412 | 43,211 | 49,908 | 57,644 |
| margin % | 10.2 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| less depreciation | (7,086) | (7,521) | (7,881) | (8,830) | (10,162) | (11,737) | (13,556) | (15,657) | (18,084) |
| EBIT | 15,621 | 16,372 | 23,045 | 19,091 | 22,229 | 25,675 | 29,654 | 34,251 | 39,560 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5,269) | (6,135) | (7,086) | (8,185) | (9,453) | (10,918) | |||
| NOPAT | 13,822 | 16,094 | 18,589 | 21,470 | 24,798 | 28,641 | |||
| add depreciation | 7,086 | 7,521 | 7,881 | 8,830 | 10,162 | 11,737 | 13,556 | 15,657 | 18,084 |
| less capex | (9,842) | (15,728) | (20,649) | (30,096) | (34,614) | (33,506) | (31,222) | (27,425) | (21,701) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6,392) | (7,383) | (8,528) | (9,849) | (11,376) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 9,366 | 8,328 | 3,761 | — | (14,751) | (10,563) | (4,723) | 3,180 | 13,648 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (14,001) | (9,033) | (3,639) | 2,207 | 8,533 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 96,659, dividends at 8.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 19,091 | 22,229 | 25,675 | 29,654 | 34,251 | 39,560 |
| Interest at 4.4% on debt | (4,253) | (4,253) | (4,253) | (4,253) | (4,253) | |
| Profit before tax | 17,976 | 21,422 | 25,401 | 29,998 | 35,307 | |
| Profit after tax | 13,391 | 13,015 | 15,509 | 18,391 | 21,718 | 25,562 |
| Dividends | (1,110) | (1,080) | (1,287) | (1,526) | (1,803) | (2,122) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 14,350 | (4,560) | (19,490) | (28,819) | (30,520) | (22,073) |
| Working capital | 41,129 | 47,521 | 54,904 | 63,432 | 73,281 | 84,658 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,92,316 | 3,16,769 | 3,38,537 | 3,56,203 | 3,67,970 | 3,71,587 |
| Debt | 96,659 | 96,659 | 96,659 | 96,659 | 96,659 | 96,659 |
| Equity | 1,36,595 | 1,48,530 | 1,62,752 | 1,79,616 | 1,99,532 | 2,22,972 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 16,784 | 19,863 | 23,419 | 27,526 | 32,270 | |
| Investing (capex) | (34,614) | (33,506) | (31,222) | (27,425) | (21,701) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1,080) | (1,287) | (1,526) | (1,803) | (2,122) | |
| Net change in cash | (18,910) | (14,930) | (9,329) | (1,701) | 8,447 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (17,830) | (13,642) | (7,803) | 101 | 10,569 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15.5% | 10.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹196 | (80.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.