Models
HINDPRAKASH INDUSTRY LTDHPILChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹15per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹15implied FY24 P/E 10.4× · EV/EBITDA 10.1×
Against CMP ₹123.87−87.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2972%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹8₹30
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹107₹154
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY25–FY29 free cash flow | 11 |
| PV of terminal value | 28 |
| Enterprise value | 39 |
| less net debt | (22) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 17 |
| ÷ 1.14 crore shares | ₹15 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 16 | 19 | 22 | 26 | 30 |
| 10.50% | 14 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 25 |
| 11.00% | 12 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 21 |
| 11.50% | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 |
| 12.00% | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹123.87; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 11 · 15 · 21 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.78 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 101 | 100 | 98 | 97 | 95 | 94 | 92 |
| growth % | — | (1.3) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) |
| EBITDA | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| margin % | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| less depreciation | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| EBIT | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| NOPAT | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| add depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less capex | (2) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| less working-capital build | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 5 | — | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 22, dividends at 7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Interest at 11.9% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Profit after tax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dividends | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Working capital | 35 | 34 | 34 | 33 | 33 | 32 |
| Net block and other assets | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Debt | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| Equity | 50 | 51 | 51 | 52 | 52 | 52 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Investing (capex) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Net change in cash | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY24 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1.5% | 3.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹15 | (87.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.