Models
HINDUSTAN AERONAUTICS LTDHALAerospace & Defense
₹1,224per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,224implied FY26 P/E 8.8× · EV/EBITDA 8.0×
Against CMP ₹4,905.00−75.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹963₹1,743
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3,479₹5,150
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 19,382 |
| PV of terminal value | 58,701 |
| Enterprise value | 78,083 |
| less net debt | 3,768 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 81,851 |
| ÷ 66.88 crore shares | ₹1,224 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,262 | 1,350 | 1,455 | 1,583 | 1,743 |
| 10.50% | 1,170 | 1,243 | 1,329 | 1,432 | 1,558 |
| 11.00% | 1,091 | 1,153 | 1,224 | 1,308 | 1,409 |
| 11.50% | 1,023 | 1,075 | 1,135 | 1,205 | 1,288 |
| 12.00% | 963 | 1,008 | 1,059 | 1,118 | 1,187 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹4,905.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 971 · 1,217 · 1,486 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.20 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 26,927 | 30,381 | 30,981 | 33,089 | 35,405 | 37,883 | 40,535 | 43,373 | 46,409 |
| growth % | 9.4 | 12.8 | 2.0 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA | 6,679 | 9,741 | 9,614 | 9,770 | 10,444 | 11,176 | 11,958 | 12,795 | 13,691 |
| margin % | 24.8 | 32.1 | 31.0 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 |
| less depreciation | (1,785) | (1,407) | (1,340) | (1,355) | (1,452) | (1,553) | (1,662) | (1,778) | (1,903) |
| EBIT | 4,894 | 8,334 | 8,274 | 8,415 | 8,993 | 9,622 | 10,296 | 11,017 | 11,788 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2,112) | (2,257) | (2,415) | (2,584) | (2,765) | (2,959) | |||
| NOPAT | 6,303 | 6,736 | 7,207 | 7,712 | 8,251 | 8,829 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,785 | 1,407 | 1,340 | 1,355 | 1,452 | 1,553 | 1,662 | 1,778 | 1,903 |
| less capex | (782) | (916) | (930) | (1,485) | (1,593) | (1,745) | (1,909) | (2,088) | (2,283) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2,133) | (2,283) | (2,442) | (2,613) | (2,796) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 8,047 | 7,306 | 12,713 | — | 4,461 | 4,733 | 5,022 | 5,328 | 5,652 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 4,234 | 4,047 | 3,869 | 3,698 | 3,534 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 36.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 8,415 | 8,993 | 9,622 | 10,296 | 11,017 | 11,788 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 8,993 | 9,622 | 10,296 | 11,017 | 11,788 | |
| Profit after tax | 9,116 | 6,736 | 7,207 | 7,712 | 8,251 | 8,829 |
| Dividends | (3,344) | (2,472) | (2,645) | (2,830) | (3,028) | (3,240) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3,768 | 5,756 | 7,845 | 10,037 | 12,336 | 14,748 |
| Working capital | 30,487 | 32,620 | 34,903 | 37,345 | 39,958 | 42,755 |
| Net block and other assets | 98,160 | 98,302 | 98,493 | 98,740 | 99,050 | 99,431 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 41,045 | 45,308 | 49,870 | 54,752 | 59,975 | 65,564 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 6,054 | 6,478 | 6,931 | 7,416 | 7,936 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,593) | (1,745) | (1,909) | (2,088) | (2,283) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2,472) | (2,645) | (2,830) | (3,028) | (3,240) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,989 | 2,088 | 2,192 | 2,300 | 2,412 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 4,461 | 4,733 | 5,022 | 5,328 | 5,652 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7% | 29.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,224 | (75.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.