Models
HINDUSTAN COMPOSITES LTD.HINDCOMPOSAuto Components
₹439per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹439implied FY26 P/E 20.0× · EV/EBITDA 12.3×
Against CMP ₹375.10+16.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies10.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹334₹647
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹347₹550
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 123 |
| PV of terminal value | 522 |
| Enterprise value | 645 |
| less net debt | 2 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 647 |
| ÷ 1.48 crore shares | ₹439 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 454 | 489 | 531 | 583 | 647 |
| 10.50% | 417 | 446 | 481 | 522 | 573 |
| 11.00% | 385 | 410 | 439 | 473 | 513 |
| 11.50% | 358 | 379 | 403 | 431 | 465 |
| 12.00% | 334 | 352 | 373 | 397 | 424 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹375.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 342 · 435 · 550 |
| Draws below the CMP | 22% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.46 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 283 | 298 | 325 | 375 | 433 | 500 | 578 | 667 | 771 |
| growth % | 21.5 | 5.3 | 9.2 | 15.4 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| EBITDA | 41 | 51 | 46 | 53 | 61 | 70 | 81 | 93 | 108 |
| margin % | 14.4 | 17.2 | 14.2 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (10) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (16) | (18) | (21) | (25) |
| EBIT | 32 | 42 | 36 | 41 | 47 | 54 | 62 | 72 | 83 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (11) | (13) | (15) | (17) | (20) | |||
| NOPAT | 31 | 36 | 41 | 48 | 55 | 64 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 25 |
| less capex | (7) | (36) | (21) | (22) | (26) | (27) | (28) | (29) | (30) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 9 | 4 | 9 | — | 19 | 25 | 32 | 40 | 50 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 18 | 21 | 24 | 28 | 31 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 41 | 47 | 54 | 62 | 72 | 83 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 47 | 54 | 62 | 72 | 83 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 36 | 41 | 48 | 55 | 64 |
| Dividends | (3) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 21 | 46 | 78 | 118 | 168 |
| Working capital | 31 | 35 | 41 | 47 | 55 | 63 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,232 | 1,244 | 1,255 | 1,264 | 1,272 | 1,277 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,145 | 1,181 | 1,222 | 1,270 | 1,325 | 1,389 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 45 | 52 | 60 | 69 | 80 | |
| Investing (capex) | (26) | (27) | (28) | (29) | (30) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 19 | 25 | 32 | 40 | 50 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 19 | 25 | 32 | 40 | 50 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15.5% | 14% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹439 | 16.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.