Models
HINDUSTAN CONSTRUCTION COHCCConstruction
₹16per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹16implied FY26 P/E 21.4× · EV/EBITDA 8.1×
Against CMP ₹22.76−28.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies3.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹12₹24
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹14₹30
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,388 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,511 |
| Enterprise value | 4,899 |
| less net debt | (638) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,261 |
| ÷ 261.95 crore shares | ₹16 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 17 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 |
| 10.50% | 15 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 21 |
| 11.00% | 14 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 19 |
| 11.50% | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| 12.00% | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹22.76; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 14 · 16 · 19 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.75 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,857 | 7,007 | 5,603 | 3,970 | 3,771 | 3,583 | 3,403 | 3,233 | 3,072 |
| growth % | (7.6) | (28.9) | (20.0) | (29.2) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 986 | 1,522 | 1,323 | 603 | 573 | 545 | 517 | 491 | 467 |
| margin % | 10.0 | 21.7 | 23.6 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 |
| less depreciation | (129) | (105) | (164) | (27) | (26) | (25) | (24) | (23) | (22) |
| EBIT | 858 | 1,417 | 1,159 | 575 | 547 | 519 | 493 | 469 | 445 |
| less tax on EBIT | (152) | (144) | (137) | (130) | (124) | (118) | |||
| NOPAT | 424 | 402 | 382 | 363 | 345 | 328 | |||
| add depreciation | 129 | 105 | 164 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 |
| less capex | (215) | (19) | (18) | (81) | (75) | (61) | (48) | (37) | (26) |
| less working-capital build | — | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (198) | 72 | 116 | — | 371 | 363 | 355 | 346 | 338 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 352 | 310 | 273 | 240 | 211 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,019, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 575 | 547 | 519 | 493 | 469 | 445 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | |
| Profit before tax | 465 | 438 | 412 | 387 | 364 | |
| Profit after tax | 166 | 342 | 322 | 303 | 285 | 268 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 381 | 693 | 996 | 1,291 | 1,577 | 1,855 |
| Working capital | 358 | 340 | 323 | 307 | 292 | 277 |
| Net block and other assets | 7,753 | 7,802 | 7,838 | 7,862 | 7,876 | 7,880 |
| Debt | 1,019 | 1,019 | 1,019 | 1,019 | 1,019 | 1,019 |
| Equity | 2,127 | 2,470 | 2,792 | 3,095 | 3,380 | 3,648 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 387 | 364 | 343 | 323 | 304 | |
| Investing (capex) | (75) | (61) | (48) | (37) | (26) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 311 | 303 | 295 | 286 | 278 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 311 | 303 | 295 | 286 | 278 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 15.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹16 | (28.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.