Models
HINDUSTAN COPPER LTDHINDCOPPERNon - Ferrous Metals
₹377per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹377implied FY26 P/E 32.1× · EV/EBITDA 26.4×
Against CMP ₹515.00−26.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies39.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹287₹555
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹244₹760
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 6,976 |
| PV of terminal value | 29,155 |
| Enterprise value | 36,131 |
| less net debt | 286 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 36,417 |
| ÷ 96.70 crore shares | ₹377 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 389 | 419 | 455 | 500 | 555 |
| 10.50% | 358 | 383 | 412 | 448 | 491 |
| 11.00% | 331 | 352 | 377 | 406 | 440 |
| 11.50% | 308 | 326 | 346 | 370 | 399 |
| 12.00% | 287 | 303 | 320 | 341 | 364 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹515.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 276 · 374 · 503 |
| Draws below the CMP | 92% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.40 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,677 | 1,717 | 2,071 | 3,078 | 4,001 | 5,202 | 6,762 | 8,791 | 11,428 |
| growth % | (7.9) | 2.4 | 20.6 | 48.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 491 | 547 | 738 | 1,366 | 1,777 | 2,310 | 3,002 | 3,903 | 5,074 |
| margin % | 29.3 | 31.9 | 35.6 | 44.4 | 44.4 | 44.4 | 44.4 | 44.4 | 44.4 |
| less depreciation | (175) | (175) | (176) | (200) | (260) | (338) | (440) | (571) | (743) |
| EBIT | 316 | 372 | 562 | 1,166 | 1,516 | 1,971 | 2,563 | 3,332 | 4,331 |
| less tax on EBIT | (295) | (384) | (499) | (648) | (843) | (1,096) | |||
| NOPAT | 871 | 1,133 | 1,473 | 1,914 | 2,489 | 3,235 | |||
| add depreciation | 175 | 175 | 176 | 200 | 260 | 338 | 440 | 571 | 743 |
| less capex | (102) | (207) | (178) | (127) | (164) | (261) | (402) | (604) | (891) |
| less working-capital build | — | (98) | (127) | (165) | (215) | (280) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 572 | 85 | 366 | — | 1,131 | 1,422 | 1,786 | 2,241 | 2,807 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,073 | 1,216 | 1,376 | 1,555 | 1,755 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 110, dividends at 25.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,166 | 1,516 | 1,971 | 2,563 | 3,332 | 4,331 |
| Interest at 3.6% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,513 | 1,967 | 2,559 | 3,328 | 4,327 | |
| Profit after tax | 919 | 1,130 | 1,470 | 1,912 | 2,486 | 3,232 |
| Dividends | (238) | (293) | (381) | (495) | (644) | (837) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 396 | 1,231 | 2,270 | 3,558 | 5,152 | 7,119 |
| Working capital | 326 | 423 | 551 | 716 | 931 | 1,211 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,694 | 3,598 | 3,522 | 3,484 | 3,517 | 3,666 |
| Debt | 110 | 110 | 110 | 110 | 110 | 110 |
| Equity | 3,342 | 4,179 | 5,268 | 6,685 | 8,527 | 10,922 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,292 | 1,681 | 2,186 | 2,842 | 3,696 | |
| Investing (capex) | (164) | (261) | (402) | (604) | (891) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (293) | (381) | (495) | (644) | (837) | |
| Net change in cash | 835 | 1,039 | 1,288 | 1,594 | 1,967 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,128 | 1,419 | 1,783 | 2,238 | 2,804 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 44.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹377 | (26.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.