Models
HINDUSTAN FOODS LIMITEDHNDFDSDiversified FMCG
₹83per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹83implied FY26 P/E 6.4× · EV/EBITDA 5.6×
Against CMP ₹618.00−86.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31107%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹31₹188
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹442₹678
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (146) |
| PV of terminal value | 2,171 |
| Enterprise value | 2,025 |
| less net debt | (1,014) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,011 |
| ÷ 12.12 crore shares | ₹83 |
107% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 90 | 108 | 129 | 156 | 188 |
| 10.50% | 72 | 87 | 104 | 125 | 151 |
| 11.00% | 56 | 69 | 83 | 101 | 121 |
| 11.50% | 43 | 54 | 66 | 80 | 97 |
| 12.00% | 31 | 40 | 51 | 63 | 77 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹618.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1 · 80 · 159 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.32 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.21 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,598 | 2,755 | 3,564 | 4,251 | 5,080 | 6,071 | 7,254 | 8,669 | 10,359 |
| growth % | 27.4 | 6.0 | 29.4 | 19.3 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| EBITDA | 173 | 222 | 293 | 359 | 427 | 510 | 609 | 728 | 870 |
| margin % | 6.7 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| less depreciation | (37) | (55) | (80) | (90) | (107) | (127) | (152) | (182) | (218) |
| EBIT | 136 | 167 | 213 | 269 | 320 | 382 | 457 | 546 | 653 |
| less tax on EBIT | (68) | (81) | (97) | (116) | (138) | (165) | |||
| NOPAT | 201 | 239 | 286 | 341 | 408 | 488 | |||
| add depreciation | 37 | 55 | 80 | 90 | 107 | 127 | 152 | 182 | 218 |
| less capex | (166) | (133) | (273) | (341) | (406) | (402) | (382) | (337) | (261) |
| less working-capital build | — | (115) | (138) | (165) | (197) | (235) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (67) | (46) | (159) | — | (176) | (127) | (52) | 56 | 209 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (167) | (109) | (40) | 39 | 131 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,050, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 269 | 320 | 382 | 457 | 546 | 653 |
| Interest at 8.6% on debt | (90) | (90) | (90) | (90) | (90) | |
| Profit before tax | 230 | 292 | 367 | 456 | 562 | |
| Profit after tax | 149 | 172 | 218 | 274 | 341 | 420 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 36 | (207) | (402) | (522) | (533) | (391) |
| Working capital | 592 | 707 | 845 | 1,009 | 1,206 | 1,441 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,546 | 2,846 | 3,121 | 3,350 | 3,505 | 3,549 |
| Debt | 1,050 | 1,050 | 1,050 | 1,050 | 1,050 | 1,050 |
| Equity | 1,165 | 1,337 | 1,555 | 1,829 | 2,169 | 2,589 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 163 | 208 | 262 | 326 | 403 | |
| Investing (capex) | (406) | (402) | (382) | (337) | (261) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (243) | (194) | (120) | (11) | 142 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (243) | (194) | (120) | (11) | 142 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19.5% | 8.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹83 | (86.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.