Models
HINDUSTAN MEDIA VENT LTDHMVLMedia
₹129per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹129implied FY26 P/E 10.6× · EV/EBITDA 10.4×
Against CMP ₹78.79+63.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(10.3)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹100₹185
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹55₹108
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 298 |
| PV of terminal value | 702 |
| Enterprise value | 999 |
| less net debt | (50) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 949 |
| ÷ 7.37 crore shares | ₹129 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 133 | 143 | 154 | 168 | 185 |
| 10.50% | 123 | 131 | 140 | 151 | 165 |
| 11.00% | 114 | 121 | 129 | 138 | 149 |
| 11.50% | 107 | 113 | 119 | 127 | 136 |
| 12.00% | 100 | 105 | 111 | 117 | 125 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹78.79; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 107 · 128 · 153 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 713 | 704 | 733 | 740 | 747 | 755 | 762 | 770 | 777 |
| growth % | 6.6 | (1.3) | 4.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| EBITDA | (87) | (75) | (32) | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 |
| margin % | (12.1) | (10.6) | (4.4) | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| less depreciation | (31) | (27) | (21) | (17) | (18) | (18) | (18) | (18) | (19) |
| EBIT | (118) | (101) | (53) | 79 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 82 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (10) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |||
| NOPAT | 68 | 69 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | |||
| add depreciation | 31 | 27 | 21 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 |
| less capex | (14) | (15) | (4) | (3) | (3) | (8) | (12) | (17) | (22) |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 38 | 2 | 33 | — | 83 | 80 | 76 | 72 | 68 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 79 | 68 | 58 | 50 | 42 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 66, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 79 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 82 |
| Interest at 19.6% on debt | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |
| Profit before tax | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 69 | |
| Profit after tax | 49 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 60 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 17 | 89 | 157 | 222 | 282 | 338 |
| Working capital | 21 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 23 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,428 | 2,413 | 2,402 | 2,397 | 2,396 | 2,399 |
| Debt | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 |
| Equity | 1,587 | 1,645 | 1,703 | 1,762 | 1,821 | 1,882 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (8) | (12) | (17) | (22) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 72 | 68 | 64 | 60 | 56 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 72 | 68 | 64 | 60 | 56 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1% | 13% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹129 | 63.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.