Models
HINDUSTAN OIL EXPLORATIONHINDOILEXPOil
₹35per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹35implied FY26 P/E 18.7× · EV/EBITDA 3.8×
Against CMP ₹185.20−80.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3194%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹25₹56
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹118₹201
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 31 |
| PV of terminal value | 468 |
| Enterprise value | 499 |
| less net debt | (30) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 469 |
| ÷ 13.23 crore shares | ₹35 |
94% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 37 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 56 |
| 10.50% | 33 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 49 |
| 11.00% | 30 | 33 | 35 | 39 | 43 |
| 11.50% | 27 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 38 |
| 12.00% | 25 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 34 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹185.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 24 · 36 · 49 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 559 | 749 | 421 | 263 | 250 | 237 | 226 | 214 | 204 |
| growth % | 258.9 | 34.0 | (43.8) | (37.5) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 292 | 332 | 162 | 130 | 123 | 117 | 111 | 106 | 100 |
| margin % | 52.3 | 44.4 | 38.5 | 49.3 | 49.3 | 49.3 | 49.3 | 49.3 | 49.3 |
| less depreciation | (74) | (80) | (78) | (75) | (71) | (68) | (65) | (61) | (58) |
| EBIT | 219 | 252 | 84 | 54 | 52 | 49 | 47 | 44 | 42 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| NOPAT | 53 | 50 | 48 | 45 | 43 | 41 | |||
| add depreciation | 74 | 80 | 78 | 75 | 71 | 68 | 65 | 61 | 58 |
| less capex | (72) | (18) | (33) | (175) | (166) | (139) | (114) | (91) | (70) |
| less working-capital build | — | 19 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 16 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 148 | 104 | 128 | — | (25) | (5) | 14 | 30 | 45 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (24) | (4) | 10 | 21 | 28 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 50, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 54 | 52 | 49 | 47 | 44 | 42 |
| Interest at 6.5% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 49 | 46 | 43 | 41 | 39 | |
| Profit after tax | 63 | 47 | 45 | 42 | 40 | 38 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 20 | (9) | (17) | (6) | 21 | 63 |
| Working capital | 387 | 367 | 349 | 332 | 315 | 299 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,764 | 1,859 | 1,930 | 1,980 | 2,009 | 2,021 |
| Debt | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Equity | 1,385 | 1,432 | 1,477 | 1,519 | 1,559 | 1,597 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 138 | 131 | 124 | 118 | 112 | |
| Investing (capex) | (166) | (139) | (114) | (91) | (70) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (29) | (8) | 10 | 27 | 42 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (29) | (8) | 10 | 27 | 42 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 49.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹35 | (80.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.