Models
HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORPHINDPETROPetroleum Products
₹944per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹944implied FY26 P/E 120.2× · EV/EBITDA 8.2×
Against CMP ₹352.00+168.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(17.1)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹686₹1,458
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹316₹508
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 66,738 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,84,822 |
| Enterprise value | 2,51,561 |
| less net debt | (50,775) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,00,786 |
| ÷ 212.78 crore shares | ₹944 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 982 | 1,068 | 1,172 | 1,299 | 1,458 |
| 10.50% | 891 | 963 | 1,048 | 1,150 | 1,274 |
| 11.00% | 812 | 873 | 944 | 1,027 | 1,127 |
| 11.50% | 745 | 796 | 856 | 925 | 1,007 |
| 12.00% | 686 | 730 | 780 | 839 | 907 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹352.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 736 · 934 · 1,177 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,66,499 | 4,61,969 | 4,66,724 | 4,78,866 | 4,90,838 | 5,03,109 | 5,15,686 | 5,28,578 | 5,41,793 |
| growth % | 24.7 | (1.0) | 1.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EBITDA | (7,207) | 24,928 | 16,551 | 30,633 | 31,414 | 32,199 | 33,004 | 33,829 | 34,675 |
| margin % | (1.5) | 5.4 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| less depreciation | (4,560) | (5,596) | (6,154) | (7,347) | (7,363) | (7,547) | (7,735) | (7,929) | (8,127) |
| EBIT | (11,767) | 19,331 | 10,397 | 23,285 | 24,051 | 24,652 | 25,269 | 25,900 | 26,548 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5,868) | (6,061) | (6,212) | (6,368) | (6,527) | (6,690) | |||
| NOPAT | 17,417 | 17,990 | 18,440 | 18,901 | 19,373 | 19,858 | |||
| add depreciation | 4,560 | 5,596 | 6,154 | 7,347 | 7,363 | 7,547 | 7,735 | 7,929 | 8,127 |
| less capex | (9,447) | (10,071) | (9,579) | (8,331) | (8,344) | (8,679) | (9,025) | (9,382) | (9,752) |
| less working-capital build | — | (395) | (405) | (415) | (425) | (436) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (12,913) | 13,781 | 4,648 | — | 16,613 | 16,903 | 17,197 | 17,494 | 17,796 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 15,769 | 14,454 | 13,248 | 12,141 | 11,127 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 50,899, dividends at 18.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 23,285 | 24,051 | 24,652 | 25,269 | 25,900 | 26,548 |
| Interest at 5.8% on debt | (2,952) | (2,952) | (2,952) | (2,952) | (2,952) | |
| Profit before tax | 21,099 | 21,700 | 22,316 | 22,948 | 23,596 | |
| Profit after tax | 18,047 | 15,782 | 16,232 | 16,693 | 17,165 | 17,650 |
| Dividends | (3,298) | (2,888) | (2,970) | (3,055) | (3,141) | (3,230) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 124 | 11,641 | 23,366 | 35,300 | 47,445 | 59,803 |
| Working capital | 15,744 | 16,139 | 16,544 | 16,959 | 17,384 | 17,820 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,87,171 | 1,88,153 | 1,89,285 | 1,90,574 | 1,92,028 | 1,93,653 |
| Debt | 50,899 | 50,899 | 50,899 | 50,899 | 50,899 | 50,899 |
| Equity | 65,556 | 78,450 | 91,711 | 1,05,349 | 1,19,373 | 1,33,793 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 22,749 | 23,373 | 24,013 | 24,668 | 25,340 | |
| Investing (capex) | (8,344) | (8,679) | (9,025) | (9,382) | (9,752) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2,888) | (2,970) | (3,055) | (3,141) | (3,230) | |
| Net change in cash | 11,517 | 11,724 | 11,934 | 12,145 | 12,358 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 14,405 | 14,695 | 14,988 | 15,286 | 15,588 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2.5% | 6.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹944 | 168.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.