HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD. — valuation model

HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD.HINDUNILVRDiversified FMCG

₹685per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹685implied FY26 P/E 10.8× · EV/EBITDA 10.7×

Against CMP ₹1,927.00−64.4%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies28.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹538₹977

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹1,936₹2,667

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	42,400
PV of terminal value	1,16,011
Enterprise value	1,58,411
less net debt	2,583
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	1,60,994
÷ 235.00 crore shares	₹685

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	707	756	815	887	977
10.50%	655	696	744	802	873
11.00%	611	645	685	733	789
11.50%	572	601	635	675	721
12.00%	538	564	592	626	664

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,927.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	583 · 681 · 804
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.70
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.66
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.12

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	60,580	61,896	63,121	64,468	65,757	67,073	68,414	69,782	71,178
growth %	15.5	2.2	2.0	2.1	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0
EBITDA	14,085	14,669	15,156	14,819	15,124	15,427	15,735	16,050	16,371
margin %	23.3	23.7	24.0	23.0	23.0	23.0	23.0	23.0	23.0
less depreciation	(1,137)	(1,216)	(1,355)	(1,333)	(1,381)	(1,409)	(1,437)	(1,465)	(1,495)
EBIT	12,948	13,453	13,801	13,486	13,743	14,018	14,299	14,584	14,876
less tax on EBIT				(3,088)	(3,147)	(3,210)	(3,274)	(3,340)	(3,407)
NOPAT				10,398	10,596	10,808	11,024	11,245	11,470
add depreciation	1,137	1,216	1,355	1,333	1,381	1,409	1,437	1,465	1,495
less capex	(1,174)	(1,468)	(1,254)	(1,258)	(1,315)	(1,429)	(1,546)	(1,668)	(1,794)
less working-capital build				—	0	0	0	0	0
Free cash flow to firm	8,817	14,001	10,632	—	10,662	10,788	10,915	11,042	11,171
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					10,120	9,225	8,408	7,664	6,984

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 67.3% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	13,486	13,743	14,018	14,299	14,584	14,876
Interest at 8% on debt		0	0	0	0	0
Profit before tax		13,743	14,018	14,299	14,584	14,876
Profit after tax	15,040	10,596	10,808	11,024	11,245	11,470
Dividends	(10,124)	(7,131)	(7,274)	(7,419)	(7,568)	(7,719)
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	2,583	6,114	9,628	13,123	16,598	20,049
Working capital	(5,157)	(5,157)	(5,157)	(5,157)	(5,157)	(5,157)
Net block and other assets	82,326	82,261	82,281	82,390	82,593	82,892
Debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Equity	49,008	52,473	56,007	59,612	63,289	67,040
Balance check	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		11,977	12,217	12,461	12,710	12,964
Investing (capex)		(1,315)	(1,429)	(1,546)	(1,668)	(1,794)
Financing (dividends)		(7,131)	(7,274)	(7,419)	(7,568)	(7,719)
Net change in cash		3,531	3,514	3,495	3,475	3,452
Free cash flow to equity		10,662	10,788	10,915	11,042	11,171

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	2%	23%	11.00%	5%	₹685	(64.4)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.