Models
HINDUSTAN ZINC LIMITEDHINDZINCNon - Ferrous Metals
₹970per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹970implied FY26 P/E 24.0× · EV/EBITDA 18.9×
Against CMP ₹576.45+68.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies7.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹737₹1,436
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹431₹733
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 84,249 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,33,597 |
| Enterprise value | 4,17,846 |
| less net debt | (7,955) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,09,891 |
| ÷ 422.50 crore shares | ₹970 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,004 | 1,082 | 1,177 | 1,292 | 1,436 |
| 10.50% | 921 | 987 | 1,064 | 1,157 | 1,270 |
| 11.00% | 851 | 906 | 970 | 1,046 | 1,137 |
| 11.50% | 790 | 837 | 891 | 954 | 1,028 |
| 12.00% | 737 | 777 | 823 | 876 | 938 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹576.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 739 · 963 · 1,248 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.46 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 33,272 | 28,932 | 34,083 | 40,844 | 49,013 | 58,815 | 70,578 | 84,694 | 1,01,633 |
| growth % | 13.0 | (13.0) | 17.8 | 19.8 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| EBITDA | 16,680 | 13,656 | 17,305 | 22,089 | 26,516 | 31,819 | 38,183 | 45,820 | 54,983 |
| margin % | 50.1 | 47.2 | 50.8 | 54.1 | 54.1 | 54.1 | 54.1 | 54.1 | 54.1 |
| less depreciation | (3,264) | (3,468) | (3,640) | (3,790) | (4,558) | (5,470) | (6,564) | (7,877) | (9,452) |
| EBIT | 13,416 | 10,188 | 13,665 | 18,299 | 21,958 | 26,349 | 31,619 | 37,943 | 45,532 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4,630) | (5,555) | (6,666) | (8,000) | (9,600) | (11,519) | |||
| NOPAT | 13,669 | 16,402 | 19,683 | 23,619 | 28,343 | 34,012 | |||
| add depreciation | 3,264 | 3,468 | 3,640 | 3,790 | 4,558 | 5,470 | 6,564 | 7,877 | 9,452 |
| less capex | (3,561) | (3,866) | (4,006) | (5,275) | (6,323) | (7,331) | (8,491) | (9,820) | (11,342) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 11,568 | 9,480 | 10,154 | — | 14,638 | 17,821 | 21,693 | 26,400 | 32,122 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 13,894 | 15,239 | 16,711 | 18,322 | 20,084 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 8,252, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 18,299 | 21,958 | 26,349 | 31,619 | 37,943 | 45,532 |
| Interest at 9.3% on debt | (767) | (767) | (767) | (767) | (767) | |
| Profit before tax | 21,190 | 25,582 | 30,852 | 37,176 | 44,764 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 15,829 | 19,110 | 23,046 | 27,770 | 33,439 |
| Dividends | (4,225) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 297 | 14,362 | 31,610 | 52,729 | 78,556 | 1,10,104 |
| Working capital | (615) | (615) | (615) | (615) | (615) | (615) |
| Net block and other assets | 42,688 | 44,453 | 46,314 | 48,241 | 50,185 | 52,075 |
| Debt | 8,252 | 8,252 | 8,252 | 8,252 | 8,252 | 8,252 |
| Equity | 22,629 | 38,458 | 57,568 | 80,614 | 1,08,384 | 1,41,823 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 20,387 | 24,579 | 29,610 | 35,647 | 42,891 | |
| Investing (capex) | (6,323) | (7,331) | (8,491) | (9,820) | (11,342) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 14,065 | 17,248 | 21,119 | 25,826 | 31,548 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 14,065 | 17,248 | 21,119 | 25,826 | 31,548 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 20% | 54.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹970 | 68.3% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.