Models
HONDA I POWER PRODUCT LTDHONDAPOWERIndustrial Manufacturing
₹320per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹320implied FY26 P/E 4.9× · EV/EBITDA 3.6×
Against CMP ₹1,958.00−83.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3193%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹250₹460
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,817₹2,949
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 17 |
| PV of terminal value | 241 |
| Enterprise value | 258 |
| less net debt | 66 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 324 |
| ÷ 1.01 crore shares | ₹320 |
93% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 329 | 353 | 381 | 416 | 460 |
| 10.50% | 305 | 324 | 348 | 376 | 410 |
| 11.00% | 284 | 300 | 320 | 342 | 370 |
| 11.50% | 266 | 280 | 296 | 315 | 337 |
| 12.00% | 250 | 262 | 276 | 292 | 310 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,958.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 187 · 317 · 444 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.26 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,246 | 989 | 794 | 865 | 943 | 1,028 | 1,121 | 1,222 | 1,332 |
| growth % | 7.8 | (20.6) | (19.7) | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| EBITDA | 118 | 103 | 88 | 72 | 78 | 85 | 93 | 101 | 111 |
| margin % | 9.4 | 10.4 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 |
| less depreciation | (21) | (20) | (22) | (23) | (25) | (28) | (30) | (33) | (36) |
| EBIT | 97 | 83 | 66 | 48 | 53 | 58 | 63 | 68 | 75 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (13) | (14) | (16) | (17) | (19) | |||
| NOPAT | 36 | 40 | 43 | 47 | 51 | 56 | |||
| add depreciation | 21 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 25 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 36 |
| less capex | (28) | (22) | (40) | (51) | (56) | (54) | (51) | (48) | (43) |
| less working-capital build | — | (18) | (20) | (21) | (23) | (26) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 129 | 84 | (18) | — | (9) | (3) | 5 | 13 | 23 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (8) | (2) | 4 | 9 | 15 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 100% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 48 | 53 | 58 | 63 | 68 | 75 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 53 | 58 | 63 | 68 | 75 | |
| Profit after tax | 64 | 40 | 43 | 47 | 51 | 56 |
| Dividends | (126) | (40) | (43) | (47) | (51) | (56) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 66 | 18 | (28) | (70) | (108) | (141) |
| Working capital | 201 | 219 | 238 | 260 | 283 | 309 |
| Net block and other assets | 765 | 795 | 821 | 842 | 857 | 864 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 803 | 803 | 803 | 803 | 803 | 803 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 47 | 51 | 56 | 61 | 66 | |
| Investing (capex) | (56) | (54) | (51) | (48) | (43) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (40) | (43) | (47) | (51) | (56) | |
| Net change in cash | (48) | (46) | (42) | (38) | (33) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (9) | (3) | 5 | 13 | 23 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9% | 8.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹320 | (83.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.