Models
HPL ELECTRIC & POWER LTDHPLIndustrial Manufacturing
₹84per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹84implied FY26 P/E 5.9× · EV/EBITDA 4.6×
Against CMP ₹294.00−71.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3195%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹29₹194
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹256₹508
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 59 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,198 |
| Enterprise value | 1,257 |
| less net debt | (717) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 540 |
| ÷ 6.43 crore shares | ₹84 |
95% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 91 | 110 | 132 | 160 | 194 |
| 10.50% | 72 | 88 | 106 | 128 | 155 |
| 11.00% | 56 | 69 | 84 | 102 | 123 |
| 11.50% | 42 | 53 | 65 | 80 | 98 |
| 12.00% | 29 | 39 | 50 | 62 | 77 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹294.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 12 · 82 · 155 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.36 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,262 | 1,461 | 1,700 | 1,811 | 1,929 | 2,054 | 2,188 | 2,330 | 2,481 |
| growth % | 24.5 | 15.7 | 16.4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| EBITDA | 157 | 192 | 255 | 276 | 293 | 312 | 333 | 354 | 377 |
| margin % | 12.4 | 13.2 | 15.0 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 |
| less depreciation | (38) | (39) | (42) | (63) | (68) | (72) | (77) | (82) | (87) |
| EBIT | 119 | 154 | 212 | 213 | 226 | 240 | 256 | 273 | 290 |
| less tax on EBIT | (56) | (59) | (63) | (67) | (71) | (76) | |||
| NOPAT | 157 | 167 | 178 | 189 | 201 | 215 | |||
| add depreciation | 38 | 39 | 42 | 63 | 68 | 72 | 77 | 82 | 87 |
| less capex | (42) | (42) | (74) | (213) | (228) | (203) | (175) | (142) | (104) |
| less working-capital build | — | (64) | (68) | (72) | (77) | (82) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 62 | 58 | 65 | — | (57) | (22) | 19 | 64 | 115 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (54) | (18) | 14 | 44 | 72 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 750, dividends at 7.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 213 | 226 | 240 | 256 | 273 | 290 |
| Interest at 13.6% on debt | (102) | (102) | (102) | (102) | (102) | |
| Profit before tax | 124 | 138 | 154 | 171 | 188 | |
| Profit after tax | 91 | 91 | 102 | 114 | 126 | 139 |
| Dividends | (6) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 33 | (106) | (210) | (275) | (295) | (265) |
| Working capital | 978 | 1,042 | 1,109 | 1,181 | 1,258 | 1,340 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,388 | 1,548 | 1,679 | 1,778 | 1,838 | 1,856 |
| Debt | 750 | 750 | 750 | 750 | 750 | 750 |
| Equity | 1,003 | 1,087 | 1,182 | 1,288 | 1,405 | 1,535 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 95 | 106 | 118 | 131 | 144 | |
| Investing (capex) | (228) | (203) | (175) | (142) | (104) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | |
| Net change in cash | (139) | (104) | (65) | (20) | 30 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (132) | (97) | (57) | (11) | 40 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6.5% | 15.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹84 | (71.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.