Models
HYUNDAI MOTOR INDIA LTDHYUNDAIAutomobiles
₹911per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹911implied FY26 P/E 14.9× · EV/EBITDA 7.7×
Against CMP ₹2,174.00−58.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies25.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹723₹1,286
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,658₹2,890
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 14,694 |
| PV of terminal value | 51,593 |
| Enterprise value | 66,287 |
| less net debt | 7,715 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 74,002 |
| ÷ 81.25 crore shares | ₹911 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 938 | 1,001 | 1,077 | 1,170 | 1,286 |
| 10.50% | 872 | 924 | 986 | 1,061 | 1,152 |
| 11.00% | 815 | 859 | 911 | 972 | 1,045 |
| 11.50% | 766 | 803 | 847 | 898 | 957 |
| 12.00% | 723 | 755 | 792 | 835 | 885 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,174.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 756 · 903 · 1,084 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 69,193 | 70,763 | 72,532 | 74,346 | 76,204 | 78,109 | 80,062 |
| growth % | — | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EBITDA | 8,954 | 8,598 | 8,849 | 9,070 | 9,297 | 9,529 | 9,768 |
| margin % | 12.9 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| less depreciation | (2,105) | (2,198) | (2,249) | (2,305) | (2,362) | (2,421) | (2,482) |
| EBIT | 6,849 | 6,400 | 6,600 | 6,765 | 6,935 | 7,108 | 7,286 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,600) | (1,650) | (1,691) | (1,734) | (1,777) | (1,821) | |
| NOPAT | 4,800 | 4,950 | 5,074 | 5,201 | 5,331 | 5,464 | |
| add depreciation | 2,105 | 2,198 | 2,249 | 2,305 | 2,362 | 2,421 | 2,482 |
| less capex | (5,307) | (4,266) | (4,352) | (4,037) | (3,704) | (3,351) | (2,978) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (962) | — | 2,847 | 3,342 | 3,860 | 4,401 | 4,968 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 2,702 | 2,858 | 2,973 | 3,055 | 3,106 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 997, dividends at 31.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 6,400 | 6,600 | 6,765 | 6,935 | 7,108 | 7,286 |
| Interest at 11.9% on debt | (119) | (119) | (119) | (119) | (119) | |
| Profit before tax | 6,482 | 6,647 | 6,816 | 6,989 | 7,167 | |
| Profit after tax | 5,432 | 4,861 | 4,985 | 5,112 | 5,242 | 5,375 |
| Dividends | (1,706) | (1,526) | (1,565) | (1,605) | (1,646) | (1,688) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 8,712 | 9,943 | 11,631 | 13,796 | 16,463 | 19,654 |
| Working capital | (1,415) | (1,415) | (1,415) | (1,415) | (1,415) | (1,415) |
| Net block and other assets | 27,108 | 29,211 | 30,944 | 32,285 | 33,214 | 33,711 |
| Debt | 997 | 997 | 997 | 997 | 997 | 997 |
| Equity | 20,015 | 23,350 | 26,770 | 30,277 | 33,873 | 37,560 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 7,110 | 7,290 | 7,474 | 7,663 | 7,857 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4,352) | (4,037) | (3,704) | (3,351) | (2,978) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1,526) | (1,565) | (1,605) | (1,646) | (1,688) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,231 | 1,688 | 2,166 | 2,667 | 3,191 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,758 | 3,253 | 3,771 | 4,313 | 4,879 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2.5% | 12.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹911 | (58.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.