Models
ICICI PRUDENTIAL AMC LTDICICIAMCCapital Markets
₹1,271per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,271implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 14.6×
Against CMP ₹3,040.20−58.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies30.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹985₹1,839
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,530₹3,611
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 15,144 |
| PV of terminal value | 47,519 |
| Enterprise value | 62,663 |
| less net debt | 134 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 62,797 |
| ÷ 49.43 crore shares | ₹1,271 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,312 | 1,408 | 1,523 | 1,664 | 1,839 |
| 10.50% | 1,212 | 1,291 | 1,385 | 1,498 | 1,636 |
| 11.00% | 1,125 | 1,192 | 1,271 | 1,363 | 1,474 |
| 11.50% | 1,051 | 1,108 | 1,174 | 1,250 | 1,341 |
| 12.00% | 985 | 1,034 | 1,090 | 1,155 | 1,230 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,040.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,061 · 1,266 · 1,514 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.44 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,765 | 6,226 | 6,724 | 7,262 | 7,843 | 8,470 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 4,294 | 4,638 | 5,009 | 5,410 | 5,843 | 6,310 |
| margin % | 74.5 | 74.5 | 74.5 | 74.5 | 74.5 | 74.5 |
| less depreciation | (106) | (112) | (121) | (131) | (141) | (152) |
| EBIT | 4,188 | 4,526 | 4,888 | 5,279 | 5,702 | 6,158 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,055) | (1,141) | (1,232) | (1,330) | (1,437) | (1,552) |
| NOPAT | 3,133 | 3,386 | 3,656 | 3,949 | 4,265 | 4,606 |
| add depreciation | 106 | 112 | 121 | 131 | 141 | 152 |
| less capex | (115) | (125) | (137) | (151) | (166) | (183) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 3,373 | 3,640 | 3,929 | 4,240 | 4,576 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 3,202 | 3,113 | 3,026 | 2,942 | 2,861 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 80.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 4,188 | 4,526 | 4,888 | 5,279 | 5,702 | 6,158 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 4,526 | 4,888 | 5,279 | 5,702 | 6,158 | |
| Profit after tax | 3,298 | 3,386 | 3,656 | 3,949 | 4,265 | 4,606 |
| Dividends | (2,640) | (2,712) | (2,929) | (3,163) | (3,416) | (3,689) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 134 | 795 | 1,507 | 2,272 | 3,096 | 3,982 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,916 | 4,929 | 4,945 | 4,965 | 4,990 | 5,021 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 4,171 | 4,845 | 5,573 | 6,358 | 7,207 | 8,124 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3,498 | 3,777 | 4,080 | 4,406 | 4,758 | |
| Investing (capex) | (125) | (137) | (151) | (166) | (183) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2,712) | (2,929) | (3,163) | (3,416) | (3,689) | |
| Net change in cash | 661 | 711 | 766 | 824 | 886 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 3,373 | 3,640 | 3,929 | 4,240 | 4,576 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 74.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,271 | (58.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.