Models
ICRA LIMITEDICRACapital Markets
₹4,033per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹4,033implied FY26 P/E 19.9× · EV/EBITDA 18.6×
Against CMP ₹4,720.00−14.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies25.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹3,106₹5,882
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹4,692₹6,982
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 843 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,020 |
| Enterprise value | 3,863 |
| less net debt | 29 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,892 |
| ÷ 0.97 crore shares | ₹4,033 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 4,167 | 4,479 | 4,853 | 5,310 | 5,882 |
| 10.50% | 3,840 | 4,099 | 4,405 | 4,773 | 5,222 |
| 11.00% | 3,560 | 3,778 | 4,033 | 4,333 | 4,694 |
| 11.50% | 3,318 | 3,503 | 3,718 | 3,968 | 4,263 |
| 12.00% | 3,106 | 3,266 | 3,448 | 3,658 | 3,904 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹4,720.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 3,143 · 4,007 · 5,097 |
| Draws below the CMP | 80% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.49 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 403 | 446 | 498 | 600 | 722 | 871 | 1,049 | 1,264 | 1,523 |
| growth % | 17.6 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 20.4 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 |
| EBITDA | 143 | 149 | 178 | 208 | 251 | 302 | 364 | 439 | 529 |
| margin % | 35.4 | 33.3 | 35.7 | 34.7 | 34.7 | 34.7 | 34.7 | 34.7 | 34.7 |
| less depreciation | (10) | (13) | (16) | (28) | (34) | (41) | (49) | (59) | (72) |
| EBIT | 133 | 135 | 161 | 180 | 217 | 261 | 315 | 379 | 457 |
| less tax on EBIT | (49) | (59) | (71) | (85) | (103) | (124) | |||
| NOPAT | 131 | 158 | 190 | 229 | 276 | 333 | |||
| add depreciation | 10 | 13 | 16 | 28 | 34 | 41 | 49 | 59 | 72 |
| less capex | (9) | (7) | (12) | (12) | (15) | (26) | (41) | (60) | (86) |
| less working-capital build | — | (13) | (16) | (19) | (23) | (28) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 90 | 100 | 132 | — | 164 | 189 | 219 | 253 | 291 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 155 | 162 | 169 | 175 | 182 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1, dividends at 32.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 180 | 217 | 261 | 315 | 379 | 457 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 217 | 261 | 315 | 379 | 457 | |
| Profit after tax | 182 | 158 | 190 | 229 | 276 | 333 |
| Dividends | (59) | (51) | (62) | (74) | (90) | (108) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 30 | 142 | 270 | 414 | 577 | 760 |
| Working capital | 65 | 78 | 94 | 113 | 136 | 164 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,392 | 1,373 | 1,358 | 1,349 | 1,350 | 1,364 |
| Debt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Equity | 1,185 | 1,292 | 1,421 | 1,576 | 1,762 | 1,988 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 179 | 215 | 259 | 313 | 377 | |
| Investing (capex) | (15) | (26) | (41) | (60) | (86) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (51) | (62) | (74) | (90) | (108) | |
| Net change in cash | 112 | 128 | 144 | 163 | 183 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 163 | 189 | 219 | 252 | 291 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 20.5% | 34.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹4,033 | (14.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.