Models
IIFL CAPITAL SERVICES LTDIIFLCAPSCapital Markets
₹282per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹282implied FY26 P/E 15.4× · EV/EBITDA 9.9×
Against CMP ₹338.70−16.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies5.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹225₹397
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹240₹411
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,355 |
| PV of terminal value | 6,061 |
| Enterprise value | 8,416 |
| less net debt | 425 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 8,841 |
| ÷ 31.35 crore shares | ₹282 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 291 | 310 | 333 | 361 | 397 |
| 10.50% | 270 | 286 | 305 | 328 | 356 |
| 11.00% | 253 | 266 | 282 | 301 | 323 |
| 11.50% | 238 | 249 | 262 | 278 | 296 |
| 12.00% | 225 | 234 | 246 | 259 | 274 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹338.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 242 · 280 · 328 |
| Draws below the CMP | 94% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.71 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,352 | 2,161 | 2,405 | 2,420 | 2,432 | 2,444 | 2,457 | 2,469 | 2,481 |
| growth % | 9.7 | 59.8 | 11.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| EBITDA | 465 | 874 | 997 | 848 | 851 | 856 | 860 | 864 | 868 |
| margin % | 34.4 | 40.5 | 41.5 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 |
| less depreciation | (67) | (114) | (55) | (65) | (66) | (66) | (66) | (67) | (67) |
| EBIT | 398 | 761 | 942 | 783 | 786 | 790 | 793 | 797 | 801 |
| less tax on EBIT | (200) | (200) | (201) | (202) | (203) | (204) | |||
| NOPAT | 583 | 585 | 588 | 591 | 594 | 597 | |||
| add depreciation | 67 | 114 | 55 | 65 | 66 | 66 | 66 | 67 | 67 |
| less capex | (13) | (31) | (48) | (28) | (29) | (42) | (55) | (67) | (80) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (806) | (149) | 823 | — | 622 | 612 | 603 | 593 | 584 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 590 | 524 | 464 | 412 | 365 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 16.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 783 | 786 | 790 | 793 | 797 | 801 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 786 | 790 | 793 | 797 | 801 | |
| Profit after tax | 561 | 585 | 588 | 591 | 594 | 597 |
| Dividends | (93) | (97) | (98) | (98) | (99) | (99) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 425 | 949 | 1,464 | 1,969 | 2,464 | 2,948 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 9,133 | 9,097 | 9,073 | 9,061 | 9,061 | 9,075 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 3,071 | 3,559 | 4,050 | 4,543 | 5,038 | 5,536 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 651 | 654 | 657 | 661 | 664 | |
| Investing (capex) | (29) | (42) | (55) | (67) | (80) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (97) | (98) | (98) | (99) | (99) | |
| Net change in cash | 525 | 515 | 505 | 495 | 485 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 622 | 612 | 603 | 593 | 584 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 0.5% | 35% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹282 | (16.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.