₹553per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹553implied FY24 P/E 8.8× · EV/EBITDA 11.6×
Against CMP ₹1,116.00−50.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2974%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹436₹784
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹928₹1,239
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY25–FY29 free cash flow | 174 |
| PV of terminal value | 488 |
| Enterprise value | 663 |
| less net debt | 27 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 690 |
| ÷ 1.25 crore shares | ₹553 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 570 | 609 | 656 | 713 | 784 |
| 10.50% | 529 | 561 | 599 | 645 | 702 |
| 11.00% | 494 | 521 | 553 | 590 | 635 |
| 11.50% | 463 | 486 | 513 | 544 | 581 |
| 12.00% | 436 | 456 | 479 | 505 | 536 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,116.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 473 · 549 · 644 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.72 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 726 | 741 | 756 | 771 | 787 | 802 | 818 |
| growth % | — | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| EBITDA | 64 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 61 | 62 | 63 |
| margin % | 8.8 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| EBIT | 63 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (12) | |
| NOPAT | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | |
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| less capex | (4) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 28 | — | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 41 | 38 | 35 | 32 | 29 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 40.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | |
| Profit after tax | 74 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 |
| Dividends | (30) | (19) | (19) | (19) | (20) | (20) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 27 | 51 | 76 | 102 | 128 | 155 |
| Working capital | 115 | 117 | 119 | 122 | 124 | 126 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,169 | 2,170 | 2,171 | 2,171 | 2,172 | 2,172 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,070 | 2,098 | 2,126 | 2,154 | 2,183 | 2,213 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (19) | (19) | (19) | (20) | (20) | |
| Net change in cash | 24 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 27 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY24 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2% | 7.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹553 | (50.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.