INDEF MANUFACTURING LTD — valuation model

INDEF MANUFACTURING LTDBAJAJINDEFIndustrial Manufacturing

₹95per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹95implied FY26 P/E 10.4× · EV/EBITDA 13.1×

Against CMP ₹230.10−58.9%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹74₹137

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹207₹443

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	69
PV of terminal value	228
Enterprise value	297
less net debt	6
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	303
÷ 3.20 crore shares	₹95

77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	98	105	113	124	137
10.50%	90	96	103	111	122
11.00%	84	89	95	101	110
11.50%	78	83	87	93	100
12.00%	74	77	81	86	92

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹230.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	72 · 93 · 119
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.82
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.45
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.25

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	179	208	242	282	328	383	446
growth %	—	16.3	16.5	16.5	16.5	16.5	16.5
EBITDA	31	23	26	31	36	42	49
margin %	17.1	10.9	10.9	10.9	10.9	10.9	10.9
less depreciation	(5)	(6)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(12)	(14)
EBIT	25	16	19	22	26	30	35
less tax on EBIT		(0)	(0)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)
NOPAT		16	18	21	25	29	34
add depreciation	5	6	8	9	10	12	14
less capex	(9)	(5)	(6)	(8)	(10)	(13)	(17)
less working-capital build		—	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
Free cash flow to firm	(4)	—	15	16	18	20	22
Discount factor			0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value			14	14	14	14	14

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 27.4% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	16	19	22	26	30	35
Interest at 8% on debt		0	0	0	0	0
Profit before tax		19	22	26	30	35
Profit after tax	23	18	21	25	29	34
Dividends	(6)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	6	15	25	37	49	61
Working capital	30	35	41	48	56	65
Net block and other assets	296	295	295	295	296	299
Debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Equity	269	282	298	316	337	362
Balance check	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		21	24	28	33	38
Investing (capex)		(6)	(8)	(10)	(13)	(17)
Financing (dividends)		(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
Net change in cash		10	10	11	12	13
Free cash flow to equity		15	16	18	20	22

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	16.5%	10.9%	11.00%	5%	₹95	(58.9)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.