Models
INDIA GELATINE & CHEMICALS LTDBSE 531253Chemicals & Petrochemicals
₹292per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹292implied FY26 P/E 7.9× · EV/EBITDA 7.2×
Against CMP ₹377.50−22.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies7.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹225₹427
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹295₹418
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 49 |
| PV of terminal value | 161 |
| Enterprise value | 210 |
| less net debt | (3) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 207 |
| ÷ 0.71 crore shares | ₹292 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 302 | 325 | 352 | 385 | 427 |
| 10.50% | 278 | 297 | 320 | 346 | 379 |
| 11.00% | 258 | 274 | 292 | 314 | 340 |
| 11.50% | 240 | 254 | 269 | 288 | 309 |
| 12.00% | 225 | 237 | 250 | 265 | 283 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹377.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 246 · 293 · 350 |
| Draws below the CMP | 97% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.71 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 205 | 206 | 199 | 170 | 161 | 153 | 146 | 138 | 131 |
| growth % | 28.4 | 0.3 | (3.6) | (14.5) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 33 | 35 | 21 | 29 | 28 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 |
| margin % | 16.3 | 17.0 | 10.7 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (5) | (6) | (5) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| EBIT | 30 | 30 | 16 | 25 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (6) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (4) | |||
| NOPAT | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| less capex | 0 | (15) | (12) | (15) | (14) | (11) | (9) | (6) | (4) |
| less working-capital build | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 30 | 12 | 13 | — | 10 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4, dividends at 14.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 25 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 |
| Interest at 9.8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | |
| Profit after tax | 25 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| Dividends | (4) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 8 | 17 | 28 | 40 | 53 |
| Working capital | 41 | 39 | 37 | 35 | 34 | 32 |
| Net block and other assets | 175 | 185 | 192 | 197 | 200 | 200 |
| Debt | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Equity | 194 | 209 | 223 | 237 | 249 | 262 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 19 | |
| Investing (capex) | (14) | (11) | (9) | (6) | (4) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Net change in cash | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 17.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹292 | (22.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.