Models
INDIA GLYCOLS LTDINDIAGLYCOBeverages
₹447per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹447implied FY26 P/E 9.0× · EV/EBITDA 7.0×
Against CMP ₹294.90+51.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies0.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31103%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹243₹856
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹217₹1,222
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (130) |
| PV of terminal value | 4,672 |
| Enterprise value | 4,542 |
| less net debt | (1,547) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,995 |
| ÷ 6.70 crore shares | ₹447 |
103% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 474 | 543 | 627 | 729 | 856 |
| 10.50% | 403 | 460 | 528 | 610 | 710 |
| 11.00% | 342 | 390 | 447 | 514 | 594 |
| 11.50% | 289 | 330 | 378 | 434 | 500 |
| 12.00% | 243 | 279 | 319 | 366 | 421 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹294.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 268 · 439 · 646 |
| Draws below the CMP | 14% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.22 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,642 | 7,922 | 9,039 | 9,827 | 10,662 | 11,568 | 12,551 | 13,618 | 14,776 |
| growth % | 0.6 | 19.3 | 14.1 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| EBITDA | 324 | 402 | 511 | 648 | 704 | 763 | 828 | 899 | 975 |
| margin % | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| less depreciation | (94) | (101) | (115) | (155) | (171) | (185) | (201) | (218) | (236) |
| EBIT | 230 | 302 | 396 | 493 | 533 | 578 | 628 | 681 | 739 |
| less tax on EBIT | (126) | (136) | (147) | (160) | (174) | (188) | |||
| NOPAT | 367 | 397 | 431 | 468 | 507 | 550 | |||
| add depreciation | 94 | 101 | 115 | 155 | 171 | 185 | 201 | 218 | 236 |
| less capex | (439) | (553) | (760) | (823) | (896) | (784) | (648) | (482) | (284) |
| less working-capital build | — | (38) | (42) | (45) | (49) | (53) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (113) | (114) | (398) | — | (366) | (210) | (25) | 194 | 450 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (348) | (180) | (19) | 135 | 281 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,578, dividends at 25.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 493 | 533 | 578 | 628 | 681 | 739 |
| Interest at 9.9% on debt | (156) | (156) | (156) | (156) | (156) | |
| Profit before tax | 377 | 422 | 471 | 525 | 583 | |
| Profit after tax | 293 | 281 | 314 | 351 | 391 | 434 |
| Dividends | (75) | (72) | (81) | (90) | (100) | (112) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 32 | (523) | (930) | (1,161) | (1,184) | (962) |
| Working capital | 455 | 493 | 535 | 580 | 629 | 683 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,036 | 6,761 | 7,360 | 7,807 | 8,071 | 8,119 |
| Debt | 1,578 | 1,578 | 1,578 | 1,578 | 1,578 | 1,578 |
| Equity | 2,933 | 3,141 | 3,375 | 3,636 | 3,926 | 4,249 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 413 | 458 | 507 | 560 | 617 | |
| Investing (capex) | (896) | (784) | (648) | (482) | (284) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (72) | (81) | (90) | (100) | (112) | |
| Net change in cash | (555) | (407) | (231) | (23) | 222 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (483) | (326) | (141) | 78 | 333 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8.5% | 6.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹447 | 51.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.