Models
INDIA NIPPON ELECT LTDINDNIPPONAuto Components
₹941per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹941implied FY26 P/E 19.1× · EV/EBITDA 15.9×
Against CMP ₹1,372.60−31.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹710₹1,404
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹675₹1,564
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 350 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,774 |
| Enterprise value | 2,124 |
| less net debt | 5 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,129 |
| ÷ 2.26 crore shares | ₹941 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 974 | 1,052 | 1,146 | 1,260 | 1,404 |
| 10.50% | 892 | 957 | 1,034 | 1,126 | 1,239 |
| 11.00% | 823 | 877 | 941 | 1,017 | 1,107 |
| 11.50% | 762 | 809 | 863 | 925 | 999 |
| 12.00% | 710 | 750 | 796 | 848 | 910 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,372.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 708 · 924 · 1,207 |
| Draws below the CMP | 97% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.42 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 656 | 724 | 845 | 1,068 | 1,352 | 1,710 | 2,163 | 2,736 | 3,461 |
| growth % | 15.9 | 10.3 | 16.7 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 26.5 |
| EBITDA | 53 | 66 | 94 | 134 | 169 | 214 | 270 | 342 | 433 |
| margin % | 8.1 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| less depreciation | (15) | (15) | (21) | (18) | (23) | (29) | (37) | (47) | (59) |
| EBIT | 38 | 51 | 73 | 116 | 146 | 185 | 234 | 295 | 374 |
| less tax on EBIT | (28) | (35) | (44) | (56) | (70) | (89) | |||
| NOPAT | 88 | 111 | 141 | 178 | 225 | 285 | |||
| add depreciation | 15 | 15 | 21 | 18 | 23 | 29 | 37 | 47 | 59 |
| less capex | (25) | (24) | (23) | (42) | (53) | (59) | (64) | (69) | (71) |
| less working-capital build | — | (40) | (51) | (64) | (81) | (102) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 32 | 47 | 26 | — | 42 | 61 | 87 | 122 | 171 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 39 | 52 | 67 | 85 | 107 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 116 | 146 | 185 | 234 | 295 | 374 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 146 | 185 | 234 | 295 | 374 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 111 | 141 | 178 | 225 | 285 |
| Dividends | (35) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | 47 | 108 | 194 | 317 | 487 |
| Working capital | 151 | 191 | 241 | 305 | 386 | 488 |
| Net block and other assets | 911 | 941 | 970 | 998 | 1,020 | 1,032 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 821 | 933 | 1,073 | 1,251 | 1,476 | 1,761 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 94 | 119 | 151 | 191 | 241 | |
| Investing (capex) | (53) | (59) | (64) | (69) | (71) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 42 | 61 | 87 | 122 | 171 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 42 | 61 | 87 | 122 | 171 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 26.5% | 12.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹941 | (31.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.