Models
INDIA TOUR. DEV. CO. LTD.ITDCLeisure Services
₹90per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹90implied FY26 P/E 9.4× · EV/EBITDA 7.9×
Against CMP ₹686.50−86.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹72₹125
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹368₹822
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 210 |
| PV of terminal value | 508 |
| Enterprise value | 718 |
| less net debt | 54 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 772 |
| ÷ 8.58 crore shares | ₹90 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 93 | 99 | 106 | 114 | 125 |
| 10.50% | 86 | 91 | 97 | 104 | 113 |
| 11.00% | 81 | 85 | 90 | 96 | 103 |
| 11.50% | 76 | 80 | 84 | 89 | 94 |
| 12.00% | 72 | 75 | 79 | 83 | 87 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹686.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 78 · 90 · 105 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.73 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 464 | 532 | 570 | 533 | 506 | 481 | 457 | 434 | 412 |
| growth % | 162.1 | 14.8 | 7.2 | (6.6) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 75 | 101 | 85 | 91 | 87 | 82 | 78 | 74 | 71 |
| margin % | 16.3 | 19.0 | 15.0 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 |
| less depreciation | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (5) |
| EBIT | 68 | 94 | 79 | 84 | 80 | 76 | 72 | 69 | 65 |
| less tax on EBIT | (22) | (21) | (20) | (19) | (18) | (17) | |||
| NOPAT | 62 | 59 | 56 | 53 | 50 | 48 | |||
| add depreciation | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| less capex | (13) | (1) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (9) | (8) | (7) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (25) | 41 | 43 | — | 58 | 56 | 53 | 51 | 49 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 55 | 48 | 41 | 35 | 31 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1, dividends at 29.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 84 | 80 | 76 | 72 | 69 | 65 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 80 | 76 | 72 | 69 | 65 | |
| Profit after tax | 85 | 59 | 56 | 53 | 50 | 48 |
| Dividends | (25) | (17) | (16) | (16) | (15) | (14) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 55 | 96 | 135 | 173 | 209 | 244 |
| Working capital | 49 | 47 | 44 | 42 | 40 | 38 |
| Net block and other assets | 658 | 661 | 664 | 666 | 667 | 668 |
| Debt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Equity | 411 | 453 | 492 | 530 | 565 | 599 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 68 | 64 | 61 | 58 | 55 | |
| Investing (capex) | (10) | (9) | (8) | (7) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (17) | (16) | (16) | (15) | (14) | |
| Net change in cash | 41 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 35 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 58 | 56 | 53 | 51 | 49 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 17.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹90 | (86.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.