Models
INDIABULLS LIMITEDIBULLSLTD
₹29per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹29implied FY26 P/E 15.3× · EV/EBITDA 28.9×
Against CMP ₹26.14+10.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies4.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹23₹41
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹9₹33
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,490 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,625 |
| Enterprise value | 6,115 |
| less net debt | 336 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,451 |
| ÷ 223.86 crore shares | ₹29 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 30 | 32 | 34 | 37 | 41 |
| 10.50% | 28 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 37 |
| 11.00% | 26 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 33 |
| 11.50% | 24 | 25 | 27 | 28 | 30 |
| 12.00% | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 28 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹26.14; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 24 · 29 · 34 |
| Draws below the CMP | 25% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 833 | 900 | 972 | 1,050 | 1,134 | 1,225 |
| growth % | (99.9) | (81.8) | (100.0) | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | (12) | (5) | (8) | 212 | 229 | 247 | 267 | 288 | 311 |
| margin % | (11209.1) | (24550.0) | — | 25.4 | 25.4 | 25.4 | 25.4 | 25.4 | 25.4 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (0) | (0) | (37) | (40) | (43) | (46) | (50) | (54) |
| EBIT | (14) | (5) | (8) | 175 | 189 | 204 | 220 | 238 | 257 |
| less tax on EBIT | 163 | 176 | 190 | 205 | 222 | 239 | |||
| NOPAT | 338 | 365 | 394 | 426 | 460 | 497 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 40 | 43 | 46 | 50 | 54 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | 0 | (36) | (40) | (45) | (51) | (57) | (65) |
| less working-capital build | — | (30) | (32) | (35) | (37) | (40) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (11) | (12) | 5 | — | 335 | 360 | 386 | 415 | 445 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 318 | 308 | 298 | 288 | 278 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 175 | 189 | 204 | 220 | 238 | 257 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 189 | 204 | 220 | 238 | 257 | |
| Profit after tax | 274 | 365 | 394 | 426 | 460 | 497 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 336 | 671 | 1,031 | 1,417 | 1,832 | 2,278 |
| Working capital | 371 | 401 | 433 | 468 | 505 | 546 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,466 | 3,466 | 3,468 | 3,473 | 3,480 | 3,491 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 3,108 | 3,473 | 3,867 | 4,293 | 4,753 | 5,249 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 375 | 405 | 437 | 472 | 510 | |
| Investing (capex) | (40) | (45) | (51) | (57) | (65) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 335 | 360 | 386 | 415 | 445 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 335 | 360 | 386 | 415 | 445 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 25.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹29 | 10.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.