₹1,558per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,558implied FY26 P/E 19.0× · EV/EBITDA 17.5×
Against CMP ₹1,714.00−9.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies15.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,206₹2,260
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,626₹2,630
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,149 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,136 |
| Enterprise value | 9,284 |
| less net debt | 80 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 9,364 |
| ÷ 6.01 crore shares | ₹1,558 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,609 | 1,728 | 1,870 | 2,043 | 2,260 |
| 10.50% | 1,485 | 1,583 | 1,700 | 1,839 | 2,010 |
| 11.00% | 1,379 | 1,462 | 1,558 | 1,672 | 1,809 |
| 11.50% | 1,287 | 1,357 | 1,438 | 1,533 | 1,645 |
| 12.00% | 1,206 | 1,267 | 1,336 | 1,416 | 1,509 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,714.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,266 · 1,551 · 1,899 |
| Draws below the CMP | 73% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.48 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 985 | 1,197 | 1,388 | 1,569 | 1,773 | 2,003 | 2,264 | 2,558 | 2,891 |
| growth % | 30.8 | 21.5 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| EBITDA | 268 | 330 | 523 | 530 | 599 | 677 | 765 | 865 | 977 |
| margin % | 27.2 | 27.5 | 37.7 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.8 |
| less depreciation | (31) | (37) | (33) | (28) | (32) | (36) | (41) | (46) | (52) |
| EBIT | 237 | 293 | 490 | 502 | 567 | 641 | 724 | 819 | 925 |
| less tax on EBIT | (123) | (140) | (158) | (178) | (201) | (228) | |||
| NOPAT | 378 | 428 | 483 | 546 | 617 | 697 | |||
| add depreciation | 31 | 37 | 33 | 28 | 32 | 36 | 41 | 46 | 52 |
| less capex | (17) | (15) | (8) | (7) | (7) | (17) | (29) | (44) | (62) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 459 | 545 | 615 | — | 453 | 503 | 558 | 619 | 687 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 63.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 502 | 567 | 641 | 724 | 819 | 925 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 567 | 641 | 724 | 819 | 925 | |
| Profit after tax | 475 | 428 | 483 | 546 | 617 | 697 |
| Dividends | (300) | (270) | (306) | (345) | (390) | (441) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 80 | 263 | 460 | 673 | 902 | 1,148 |
| Working capital | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) |
| Net block and other assets | 4,571 | 4,546 | 4,527 | 4,515 | 4,513 | 4,523 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,400 | 2,558 | 2,736 | 2,937 | 3,164 | 3,421 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 460 | 519 | 587 | 663 | 750 | |
| Investing (capex) | (7) | (17) | (29) | (44) | (62) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (270) | (306) | (345) | (390) | (441) | |
| Net change in cash | 182 | 197 | 213 | 229 | 246 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 453 | 503 | 558 | 619 | 687 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13% | 33.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,558 | (9.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.