Models
INDIAN METALS & FERROIMFAFerrous Metals
₹527per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹527implied FY26 P/E 5.4× · EV/EBITDA 6.4×
Against CMP ₹1,246.80−57.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31144%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹240₹1,105
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹993₹1,680
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (1,624) |
| PV of terminal value | 5,354 |
| Enterprise value | 3,730 |
| less net debt | (889) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,841 |
| ÷ 5.40 crore shares | ₹527 |
144% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 561 | 660 | 779 | 924 | 1,105 |
| 10.50% | 462 | 544 | 641 | 757 | 900 |
| 11.00% | 377 | 446 | 527 | 622 | 736 |
| 11.50% | 304 | 363 | 431 | 510 | 603 |
| 12.00% | 240 | 291 | 349 | 416 | 493 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,246.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 301 · 514 · 787 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.14 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,676 | 2,780 | 2,565 | 2,826 | 3,109 | 3,420 | 3,762 | 4,138 | 4,552 |
| growth % | 2.8 | 3.9 | (7.8) | 10.2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| EBITDA | 473 | 587 | 531 | 587 | 647 | 711 | 782 | 861 | 947 |
| margin % | 17.7 | 21.1 | 20.7 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 |
| less depreciation | (107) | (78) | (55) | (63) | (68) | (75) | (83) | (91) | (100) |
| EBIT | 366 | 509 | 476 | 524 | 578 | 636 | 700 | 770 | 847 |
| less tax on EBIT | (122) | (135) | (148) | (163) | (179) | (197) | |||
| NOPAT | 402 | 444 | 488 | 537 | 590 | 649 | |||
| add depreciation | 107 | 78 | 55 | 63 | 68 | 75 | 83 | 91 | 100 |
| less capex | (230) | (114) | (116) | (1,335) | (1,471) | (1,236) | (939) | (571) | (120) |
| less working-capital build | — | (78) | (85) | (94) | (103) | (114) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (79) | 399 | 470 | — | (1,036) | (758) | (414) | 7 | 516 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (984) | (648) | (319) | 5 | 322 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 924, dividends at 12.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 524 | 578 | 636 | 700 | 770 | 847 |
| Interest at 5.5% on debt | (51) | (51) | (51) | (51) | (51) | |
| Profit before tax | 527 | 585 | 649 | 719 | 796 | |
| Profit after tax | 424 | 405 | 449 | 498 | 551 | 610 |
| Dividends | (54) | (52) | (57) | (64) | (71) | (78) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 34 | (1,093) | (1,947) | (2,464) | (2,567) | (2,168) |
| Working capital | 777 | 855 | 941 | 1,035 | 1,138 | 1,252 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,505 | 4,907 | 6,068 | 6,924 | 7,404 | 7,424 |
| Debt | 924 | 924 | 924 | 924 | 924 | 924 |
| Equity | 2,726 | 3,079 | 3,471 | 3,905 | 4,385 | 4,918 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 395 | 439 | 486 | 539 | 597 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,471) | (1,236) | (939) | (571) | (120) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (52) | (57) | (64) | (71) | (78) | |
| Net change in cash | (1,127) | (855) | (517) | (103) | 398 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (1,075) | (797) | (453) | (32) | 477 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10% | 20.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹527 | (57.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.